tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42651715736098320412024-02-20T01:43:55.329+11:00Swing Traders EdgeAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comBlogger265125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-89030082038193191632012-07-18T09:56:00.001+10:002012-07-18T09:59:18.713+10:00Great News!Morning All<br />
<br />
It has been a while since I last posted as I have been in the process of accepting a new role. I am now very excited to announce that I have taken a position as the Senior Market Analyst at a leading CFD provider, First Prudential Markets: <a href="http://www.fpmarkets.com.au/">http://www.fpmarkets.com.au/</a>. Our niche is our Direct Market Access (DMA) product, which means that our clients receive direct price feeds from the underlying market and price depths. There is no market maker intervention and thus all client orders are placed directly on the underlying exchange. I believe First Prudential offers a fantastic platform and product offering, and there is increasing scope for Market commentary, analysis and identifying trading opportunities for our client base. Thus I am really looking forward to expanding my analysis to a broader audience and developing a first rate research product. We specialise in ASX Equities and Equity index CFDs, with a growing presence in FX and commodity markets. <br />
<br />
As ever, I thank you for your continued readership and support. If you enjoy my work and are interested in trading CFD products through DMA across ASX equities and international equity indices, please contact myself and the team at First Prudential: <a href="http://www.fpmarkets.com.au/about-us/contact-details/">http://www.fpmarkets.com.au/about-us/contact-details/</a>. I very much intend to build a first rate advisory service across our markets for our clients- a reason in itself to sign up and get an account! I will be posting here here infrequently for now.<br />
<br />
Thanks again. Please seem my contact details below and feel free to give me a call.<br />
Austin<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b style="color: blue;"><b><span style="color: #4f81bd;">Austin Mitchum </span></b></b><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>
<b><span style="color: #4f81bd;">Senior Market Analyst</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #4f81bd;">First Prudential Markets</span></b></b></span><br />
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span lang="EN-AU" style="color: grey; font-size: 10pt;">Email: </span><span style="color: #1f497d; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: 10pt;"><a href="mailto:r.friend@fpmarkets.com.au" style="color: #0065cc;" target="_blank">a.mitchum@fpmarkets.com.au</a></span></span><span style="color: #1f497d;"></span></div>
<span lang="EN-AU" style="color: grey; font-size: 10pt;">Office: </span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: #1f497d; font-size: 11pt;"></span><span style="color: grey; font-size: 13.2px;"><a href="tel:%2B61%202%208252%206800" target="_blank" value="+61282526800">+61 2 8252 6800 Ext 120<br />
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<span lang="EN-AU" style="color: grey; font-size: 10pt;">Mobile: <a href="tel:%2B61%20042%20036%203145" target="_blank" value="+61420363145">+61 0431547026</a></span>Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-32037048967495453182012-06-28T11:45:00.002+10:002012-06-28T11:48:04.331+10:00Buy The Rumour Sell The News?Morning All<br />
<br />
I want to keep this post relatively succinct.<br />
<br />
-My central strategic case was/has been to <b>initiate shorts</b> in the SP500 1350/1365 region as a global proxy for world equity markets: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/initiating-shorts.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/initiating-shorts.html</a> AND <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/initiating-shorts.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/initiating-shorts.html</a>. The initial entry has given us a lot of room to ride this move lower. <br />
<br />
-The first target and bounce zone for this sell off was 1300/1305 Emini SP500 as posted here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012_06_22_archive.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012_06_22_archive.html</a> AND <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012_06_26_archive.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012_06_26_archive.html</a>.<br />
<br />
-Last
nights price action and move has fulfilled the minimum requirements for
this bounce sequence. It may still have some room to play out. However,
the key message is that we have trend changes lower across equity
markets. It is important here to focus on the bigger picture. Thus
holding partial shorts or putting shorts back on in the 1330/1335 Emini
zone is key, stops above 1350.<br />
<br />
-This obviously has important implications for Asia and all global equity markets. <br />
<br />
-I
have massaged the market over the last few weeks and now I want to sit
back and let the bear trend play out. If this is a genuine break, then
markets will fall sharply out of the Euro Summit. If policy makers
actually surprise everyone and come out with something meaningful- then
so be it. A risk to my scenario is a move above 1345/1350 Emini SP500.
Certainly I will have to pay heed to the market if that occurs and
re-assess. <br />
<br />
-Pls see the setups for the Market tops in 2007 and May 2010 before the big breaks. To me we are in an eerily similar junction.<br />
<br />
<b>SP500 Daily Now:</b><br />
<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mgvb44QJnKk/T-uMLavoRYI/AAAAAAAAFYs/--kCjjBWrLY/s1600/spx+daily+28+june.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mgvb44QJnKk/T-uMLavoRYI/AAAAAAAAFYs/--kCjjBWrLY/s640/spx+daily+28+june.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
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<br />
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<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>SP500 Daily May 2010:</b><br />
(I realize that this may not be a clean "1" down in this example but I use it to explain the market positioning currently). <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eLITav7L684/T-uMdzgPCeI/AAAAAAAAFY0/WrYpacQXOic/s1600/spx+daily+2010+top+28+june2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eLITav7L684/T-uMdzgPCeI/AAAAAAAAFY0/WrYpacQXOic/s640/spx+daily+2010+top+28+june2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>SP500 Daily 2007:</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bcnSZBRlPdY/T-uM0CNIm4I/AAAAAAAAFY8/yo5eYZGr_Ew/s1600/spx+daily+2008+top+28+june3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bcnSZBRlPdY/T-uM0CNIm4I/AAAAAAAAFY8/yo5eYZGr_Ew/s640/spx+daily+2008+top+28+june3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
-Are
we on the cusp of a 3 of 3 down moment? These kind of events are
impossible predict and often wrong. However, my central message is that
we have had strong move off the tops, complete countertrend bounces with
confirmed bearish reversal candles (1360 currently), and now a squeeze
out of the first support. <br />
<br />
<b>-My sell zone is 1330 to
1335 Emini SP500 with stops above 1345/1350 for shorter term traders.A
break of 1300 would lead to a breakdown and confirmed trend lower. </b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>ASIA</b><br />
<br />
-Clearly
my short term sell patterns did not play out in Asia yesterday. My
message here remains the same. We are in a confirmed downtrend and thus
selling into rallies is the key trade unless we see a meaningful
base/bottom pattern. I don't see those at all yet.<br />
<br />
<b>SPI Continous 15mins:</b><br />
Major res at 4050/4060 today and I will be putting on bigger picture shorts here.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6b2ccFsc_xo/T-uN4l2LufI/AAAAAAAAFZE/5drltcqlDN4/s1600/spi+15min+28+june5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6b2ccFsc_xo/T-uN4l2LufI/AAAAAAAAFZE/5drltcqlDN4/s640/spi+15min+28+june5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Hang Seng 15mins:</b><br />
We will gap up right into meaningful resistance this morning. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uvUN94AuF8s/T-uOARO6_II/AAAAAAAAFZM/CVxiHwdGdoA/s1600/hsi+15min+28+june6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uvUN94AuF8s/T-uOARO6_II/AAAAAAAAFZM/CVxiHwdGdoA/s640/hsi+15min+28+june6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>A Shares 60mins:</b><br />
Note
that the A Shares/Shanghai Composite did not catch a bid at all
yesterday. This market continues to underperform and has remained my
bearish play throughout the region. To re-iterate, this is not healthy
for the region. Target is still down at 2250 minimum. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dSOOpfw1xTo/T-uO1sarjTI/AAAAAAAAFZU/udEGB-DeZUg/s1600/A+Shares+28+june9.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dSOOpfw1xTo/T-uO1sarjTI/AAAAAAAAFZU/udEGB-DeZUg/s640/A+Shares+28+june9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>CURRENCIES</b><br />
<b>AUD futures:</b><br />
I
have highlighted the clear boundaries here. Bounced out of the support
zone which was central to my bounce scenario across markets. Now up
against resistance.A break of that support shelf will open up a
protracted move lower. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ROrdYT0wPB4/T-uPEOgWGiI/AAAAAAAAFZc/ob3dKpjmN5U/s1600/AUD+60mins+28+june7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ROrdYT0wPB4/T-uPEOgWGiI/AAAAAAAAFZc/ob3dKpjmN5U/s640/AUD+60mins+28+june7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-19057820091854354032012-06-20T13:12:00.002+10:002012-06-28T12:56:56.527+10:00Initiating Shorts!Morning All<br />
<br />
This is another one of those important
posts. Since S&P500 1290 (June 7 post), my central case has been
for a strong countertrend bounce in risk assets led by the
S&amp;P500 with an idealised target up to 1350/1365: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/counter-trend-bounce-in-play.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/counter-trend-bounce-in-play.html</a>.
Last night we finally hit this target zone and thus this trading
scenario has played out well indeed. Asian Equity markets have also been
dragged higher as we anticipated. This is the value our analysis offers
traders and investors alike.<br />
<br />
Now I believe it is time
to re-initiate shorts. No doubt this market could still go some way
higher in the short term, especially given the FED meeting tonight.
However, the central point to make is that we have confirmed major trend
changes lower across global markets. It is always difficult to time the
"top" in these countertrend bounce sequences and you have to be willing
to sit through these squeezes. The real money will be made holding
core shorts now through the summer months into September/October. The
simple fact that price has rallied strongly into this FED announcement
implies that there is a high level of expectation. Ben better not
disappoint.<br />
<br />
Some notes:<br />
<ul>
<li>The 61.8 Fib at 1365 was hit on the S&P500 cash overnight
(1355 SEP futures). There has been no confirmation of a short term high
but my preference is to begin scaling here on the short side. </li>
<li>Key risk is obviously the FED meeting tonight. I cant rule out a
spike up to 1385/1390 if Ben pulls a real rabbit out of the hat.
However, it is supposed to feel like this at these key junctures i.e.
that this is the beginning of a new trend up. You have to be willing to
sell it when everyone wants it. </li>
<li>AUD has not shown a meaningful reversal or short term climatic
pattern at this stage. This does concern me slightly in the short term.
However, no doubt it is up against some meaningful overhead resistance.
EUR looks like a clear Flag pattern or A=C bounce to me off the recent
low.</li>
<li>ASX200 is indicated around 4160 first thing. The base pattern I
showed the other day has clearly been triggered. Note there is a minor
res level at 4160/4165 first thing but the main target is 4200/4250 for
the big picture shorts. </li>
<li>A Shares continues to dwindle and underpeform. I believe this is very meaningful and indicative of a major break coming. </li>
<li>HSI has fulfilled my forecast and is now coming into idealised short levels at 19800/20k. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>S&P500 Daily:</b><br />
<b>Retest of major resistance level. Strategic view remains to re-initiate shorts at 1350/1365, stops above 1400. </b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m_yHKgKfrYk/T-DwVRvIOsI/AAAAAAAAFUA/f4CSqbygsK4/s1600/SP60+daily+june+20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m_yHKgKfrYk/T-DwVRvIOsI/AAAAAAAAFUA/f4CSqbygsK4/s640/SP60+daily+june+20.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>S&P500 60mins:</b><br />
<b>Res zone in more detail. Note the potential inverse H+S projects up to 1390 as an outlier level. </b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iUyoRgBsNcE/T-DwhuxCczI/AAAAAAAAFUI/T_fjr9436jk/s1600/SP60mins+june+20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iUyoRgBsNcE/T-DwhuxCczI/AAAAAAAAFUI/T_fjr9436jk/s640/SP60mins+june+20.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>DOW Industrial Daily:</b><br />
<b>Retest of meaningful resistance. </b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_1qc3KLGsFM/T-DwuZEABuI/AAAAAAAAFUQ/sa8PPdXtpwU/s1600/DOW+INDU+daily+june+20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_1qc3KLGsFM/T-DwuZEABuI/AAAAAAAAFUQ/sa8PPdXtpwU/s640/DOW+INDU+daily+june+20.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>ASIA</b><br />
<br />
<b>ASX200 60mins:</b><br />
Breakout of base pattern. Minor res at 4160/65 today but the real zone for aggressive shorts to me is 4200/4250. <b><br /></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8-nJbG07O6c/T-Dw7P5GIGI/AAAAAAAAFUY/R4UVQTyDFGo/s1600/ASX200+60mins+june+21.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8-nJbG07O6c/T-Dw7P5GIGI/AAAAAAAAFUY/R4UVQTyDFGo/s640/ASX200+60mins+june+21.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>HSI 60mins:</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BTp0EOaZnrs/T-DxGTVTHTI/AAAAAAAAFUg/9aNQt0ABF_8/s1600/hsi++60mins+june+22.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BTp0EOaZnrs/T-DxGTVTHTI/AAAAAAAAFUg/9aNQt0ABF_8/s640/hsi++60mins+june+22.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>A Shares 60mins:</b><br />
Has
failed to bounce in line with other markets. Looks like a flag pattern
below the key triangle trendline which implies a continuation of the
trend lower in coming days. <b><br /></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kaVzMWvDxqs/T-DxOtp0SGI/AAAAAAAAFUo/czpXnkiukno/s1600/A+shares+60mins+20+june.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kaVzMWvDxqs/T-DxOtp0SGI/AAAAAAAAFUo/czpXnkiukno/s640/A+shares+60mins+20+june.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-78151678377049371192012-06-19T17:07:00.002+10:002012-06-19T17:08:15.601+10:00UpdateI continue to post at <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/</a> and am only updating this blog from time to time. Pls keep reading and I value your support as ever.<br />
<br />
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
I wanted to let the dust settle and gauge the early
price action this morning before I wrote. Obviously at first glance it
appears that the market is "pleased" with the results of the Greek
elections with the Emini S&500 gapping up almost 10handles.
Currencies have also gapped up but the EURO is slowly giving back all
its gains which is bearish. <br />
<br />
I believe this price
action remains part of the short term countertrend bounce scenario I
have been stressing in my recent posts. These are difficult events to
time and markets will usually go higher and for longer than one deems
possible. The important thing to stress is that we have confirmed trend
changes across Equity markets. Use this bounce opportunity in coming
days to re-initate the bigger picture shorts for investors/position
traders. Shorter term traders will just have to wait for this "risk on"
mentality to play out for now. <br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>The key market in this countertrend bounce scenario is the
S&P500. Price has now clearly broken through my first target of
1330/1335 and this opens up a move to the next major resistance zone at
1350/1365. See the 60mins chart below.My line in the sand remains
1305/1310 cash. </li>
<li>A possible inverse Head and Shoulders/base pattern has been
triggered. This actually targets up to 1380/1390 and thus would take
most bears completely off guard. A similar violent squeeze occured in
May 2011 before the big sell off. This is not my primary view but it is
worth considering. </li>
<li>Both AUD and EUR have rallied strongly and are now testing key
resistance zones in an established downtrend. These markets bottomed
before everything else and once again I believe we will see weakness in
these pairs as a prelude to a equity top. </li>
<li>The Hang Seng is the strongest market currently in the Asian region.
A solid base pattern and breakout has formed. An idealised short level
would be 20k but I doubt we can rally that high. </li>
<li>ASX200 has some catch up to do this week. 4100/4120 has been solid
short term resistance. Looking for breakout trades in coming days up to
4200/4250. However, this remains the weakest market in the region and I
would prefer to be short this vs other markets as a pair. </li>
<li>A Shares/Shanghai composite broke through the key trendline but the
sell off thus far has not been impulsive. The bigger picture remains
bearish. </li>
</ul>
<b>S&P500 60mins:</b><br />
Key overhead res zones. My
tactical view was to look for bounces from 1280/1290 to 1335 then 1350. I
believe this has almost played out.<b> Strategic view is position short at 1350/1365, stops above 1400 for the bigger picture short. </b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IlPH8G43k6Q/T96AQz8yTZI/AAAAAAAAFRg/qG-lBdGquzY/s1600/SPX+60mins+18+june1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IlPH8G43k6Q/T96AQz8yTZI/AAAAAAAAFRg/qG-lBdGquzY/s640/SPX+60mins+18+june1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>CURRENCIES:</b><br />
<br />
<b>AUD Daily continuous:</b><br />
Remains
an overlapping mess. However, price has now rallied into the downward
55ema and previous support. There is also a potential downward trendline
coming in here. <b><br /></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W8r6mCiwZdY/T96AzC0nBiI/AAAAAAAAFRw/Ej2_yI9BmmA/s1600/AUD+Daily+18+june2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W8r6mCiwZdY/T96AzC0nBiI/AAAAAAAAFRw/Ej2_yI9BmmA/s640/AUD+Daily+18+june2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>EUR Daily continuous:</b><br />
Flag pattern into resistance. A low risk short setup forming here. <b><br /></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vlwfeSFAUhk/T96CtJAn2tI/AAAAAAAAFSQ/I2V8W-3jSWw/s1600/eur+daily+.18+june8.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="342" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vlwfeSFAUhk/T96CtJAn2tI/AAAAAAAAFSQ/I2V8W-3jSWw/s640/eur+daily+.18+june8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>ASIA:</b><br />
<br />
<b>XJO Daily:</b><br />
Short
term overhead resistance at 4120/4125. Once again we are struggling to
break above this today. Remains in a downtrend. Only breaks above 4125
would confirm a base pattern and continued move higher. Weakest market
in the region. <b><br /></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zYKTEkbTDS4/T96GHC52BXI/AAAAAAAAFTo/TcWbQ66Cw1c/s1600/xjo++daily+2+18+june11.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zYKTEkbTDS4/T96GHC52BXI/AAAAAAAAFTo/TcWbQ66Cw1c/s640/xjo++daily+2+18+june11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>HSI Daily:</b><br />
<b>19,500 to 20k is the key res and short zone. </b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bwB2jWemCCc/T96ENNDMjYI/AAAAAAAAFSw/HN5uZqscZ2Q/s1600/hsi+daily+2+18+june9.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bwB2jWemCCc/T96ENNDMjYI/AAAAAAAAFSw/HN5uZqscZ2Q/s640/hsi+daily+2+18+june9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>A Shares Daily:</b><br />
E leg of the triangle potentially complete. Only a move back above 2450 would put this scenario in jeopardy. <b><br /></b><br />
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<b>KOSPI Daily:</b><br />
Topping pattern, breakdown through support, now solid bounce back into the downward moving averages and established downtrend. <b><br /></b><br />
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<br />Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-51067949950928035562012-05-29T08:30:00.003+10:002012-05-29T08:33:19.246+10:00Market UpdateThis post was originally written on Thursday May 24th: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/market-update.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/market-update.html</a>.<br />
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In Tuesdays post, I called for a tradeable low and looking to buy retests of 1300/1290: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/oversold-bounce-time.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/oversold-bounce-time.html</a>. This played out to a small degree yesterday. We now wait to see if the market can take out some minor overhead resistance levels and pick up some steam. In short:<br />
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<ul>
<li>The S&P500 tested and HELD the key trendline and 1290/1300 support zone. A bullish hammer was left on the Daily chart and higher lows on the smaller timeframes. I believe this is part of a bigger bounce sequence that could lead to a retest of 1330/1350 in time. </li>
<li>Note that type of swings usually begin with simple short covering after the market fails to make a new low. This then triggers more buying as we tick higher and higher.<b> </b></li>
<li><b>Key risk for bounce scenario is a break of 1290 and this would be the trigger to re-initiate shorts once more across risk assets</b>. I would actually be very concerned if this level dropped. </li>
<li>Central to my oversold bounce call is the USD. Both AUD and EUR remain at key buy zones/short cover zones. However, for now we are just not seeing decent bullish confirmation. If we are to rally, these pairs must move higher and NOW. I show a potential short term breakout pattern in AUD below. </li>
<li>Asia continues to be a laggard as anticipated. Today, XJO tested Fridays low as did the Hang Seng. Both made higher lows. These could be short term double bottom patterns but obviously we will need a strong offshore lead for these to play out (joys of this timezone). </li>
<li>Any decent bounce in the upcoming fortnight in S&amp;P500/DAX/EUR should be used to re-iniate big picture shorts in Asia. It is tough to try and pin point a level for now but simply we will need both price and time before initiating shorts. </li>
</ul>
<b>S&P500 Daily:</b><br />
Retest of key trendline that holds. Bullish Daily reversal candle. Need to see breaks of 1325 to open up a bigger bounce. <br />
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Tactical View: Looking for continued bounce up to 1340/1350. <br />
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<b>S&P500 Daily ii:</b><br />
Note I do not use Bollinger Bands in my own trading. My point here is that a buy signal has been triggered now that price has closed back into the bands after a climatic overthrow. I have noted a few examples on this chart in the past year or so. Obviously this could be an "outlier" event but the essential point is that we hit a price extreme, and buyers are now stepping in. <br />
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<b>AUD June 15mins:</b><br />
This is the key short term setup I am watching tonight. If risk is going to catch a bid, AUD needs to break out of this basing pattern. Last nights low once again tagged the lower end of the trendchannel line. We now need to see price recapture and hold 9770/9780 futures. <b><br /></b><br />
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<b>ASIA</b><br />
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<b>XJO Daily:</b><br />
Certainly not enough evidence to call a low yet. The trend is down. Price has tagged the first major target zone but the first rally attempt was slapped down yesterday with more bearish follow through today. I don't have a trade here other than to look for good bounces to re-initiate shorts. <br />
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<b>Hang Seng 60mins:</b><br />
Like Australia, little confirmation of a low or turn yet. This trend down has been very powerful and there is no need to fight this. Note we have hit an interesting relationship between the initial waves down. Need to see bullish follow through to confirm.<br />
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<b>A Shares 60mins:</b><br />
In no-mans land for now<br />
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Thanks<br />
Austin<br />
<br />Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-22354588259095224782012-05-21T16:55:00.004+10:002012-05-21T16:55:35.835+10:00Updated Market Outlook<br />
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Morning All</div>
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Well the last few weeks have been truly savage. It just goes to show how fragile this market really is given that a whole years gains can come undone in a matter of weeks. One by one,topping patterns have formed with the US Equity market the last to crack.</div>
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With the SP500 breaking and closing decisively below 1340,we have now entered a new cycle I believe that will continue for weeks and possibly even months. All we can do is play the levels and take it one step at a time, but certainly it appears that caution is the name of the game for the foreseeable future. At some points, the market becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and it appears the growing chorus of bearishness has decisively changed the character of this market. Of course there will be bounces and vicious squeezes. The simple fact that I am writing this in such a tone implies we might be on the cusp of a bounce now. That is the nature of bear markets. However, the breaks across markets look impulsive and the start of new trends lower across risk assets.</div>
<ul>
<li>S&P500 oversold bounce zone at 1280/1290. Volume and breadth have both reached potential short term panic extremes. This bounce zone is best left for short term traders. Look for potential Tuesday/Wednesday turn. The bigger money will be made sitting in this new trend down. Key risk is now a close back above 1340 for bears. </li>
<li>NASDAQ100 entering previous 2012 breakout zone. This should be formidable support on the first re-test. </li>
<li>EUR entering previous lows at 1.26/1.27 and risk of bounce here. AUD at 98c support level but needs to do more work before a confirmed turn DXY into overhead resistance. </li>
<li>Confirmed bearish breakdowns across Asian equities imply further weakness in weeks and months ahead. There is also a risk of an oversold bounce but this should provide a good opportunity to re-establish core shorts. The swiftness of the current sell off shows that this market should not be massaged too much. Holding core shorts and themes is key. </li>
<li>Australia is the most bearish market in region. That market is a core short with targets down to 3800. Look to play bounces out of S&amp;P500 or potentially HSI. </li>
<li>The DAX failed to bounce out of key support zone of 6350/6400. This implies genuine weakness.</li>
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<b>S&P500 Weekly:</b></div>
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A bearish reversal candle through the key support zone and previous breakout level. </div>
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<b>S&P500 Daily:</b></div>
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Strategic View: The bearish close below 1360/1340 support zone has shifted the trend to down. This opens up a deeper move to1200/1220 in coming months. Follow the new trend down.</div>
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Tactical View: Oversold bounce likely in coming days. This is for short term traders only. Position traders and investors should be using any bounce to establish core shorts into 1320/1340. Re-establish shorts if 1280 drops.</div>
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1280/1290 should be a decent bounce zone. This is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement off the October 2011 lows, and a key trendline. Key is waiting for confirmation first such as a bullish reversal candle or a base pattern on the lower time frames.The 200 day exponential average was overthrown but these are not always exact hits (note Nov 2011).</div>
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<b>NASDAQ 100 Daily:</b></div>
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Adding weight to a potential short term bounce scenario is the NASDAQ100 which has sold off into the previous breakout zone. 2400/2450 will prove a formidable support zone on first test. <b><br /></b></div>
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<b>ASIA</b></div>
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<b>Australia Weekly:</b></div>
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Very bearish breakdown candle through the upward trendline and ascending triangle. This opens up a move down to 3800 key pivot level and even a possible retest of the March 2009 lows. One level at a time. <b><br /></b></div>
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<b>Australia Daily:</b></div>
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Strategic View: Bearish and following trend lower to first target of 3800/3850. The fact that this market has underperformed all of its global peers since 2009 lows implies genuine weakness indeed. This is the laggard of the region and should be the key short play.</div>
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Tactical View: Short term bounce possible out of 4000/4050. However, this is the weakest market in the region so prefer to play other markets for a risk bounce. Focus on re-shorting into the downtrend.</div>
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<b>Hang Seng Weekly:</b></div>
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Breakdown through upward flag. Opens up a retest of the key pivot level at 16,000.</div>
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<b>Hang Seng Daily:</b></div>
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Strategic View: I was cautious on a break of upward trendline and now bearish on the clear breakdown through support.</div>
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Tactical view: Oversold into support zone therefore cover shorts. Waiting for bullish reversal candles to play a short term risk bounce. Look to re-establish shorts at 19,500/20,000. A break above 20,000 would be key risk for bears. </div>
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<b>A Shares Weekly:</b></div>
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Further confirmation of triangle pattern. Looking for breakdown through low end of triangle for potential wave 5.</div>
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<b>A Shares Daily:</b></div>
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Strategic View: Bearish and confirmed reversal at top end of range.</div>
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Tactical view: Remains a core short and happy to ride trend lower. Obvious bearish repercussions for Australia.</div>
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<b>KOPSI Weekly:</b></div>
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Very bearish reversal and breakdown through flag/pennant pattern. This looks to be a sharp C wave down with targets into 1500/1550.</div>
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<b>KOSPI Daily:</b></div>
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Strategic View: Bearish on breakdown through neckline and upward trendline.</div>
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Tactical view: Cover shorts here. No need to catch a falling knife in this market for now, especially as it is one of the most volatile in the region. Look to re-establish shorts in time .</div>
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<b>Nikkei Daily:</b></div>
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Strategic View: Bearish on breakdown through support zone of 9000/9100. Initial targets of 8000 but more meaningful target at 7000.</div>
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Tactical View: I was looking for a potential bullish turning point and this was clearly wrong. Short bounces back into overhead resistance.</div>
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<b>CURRENCIES</b></div>
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<b>AUD Daily:</b></div>
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Tactical view: Looking to get long in 97/98c for a solid bounce back into parity. This could potentially be the low end of a C wave as part of a broader triangle. However, note it is very unlikely that AUD will hold up in a risk-off environment in months ahead therefore triangle interpretation in jeopardy. </div>
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Thanks</div>
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Austin</div>
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<br /></div>Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-66587650275864166262012-05-10T11:11:00.001+10:002012-05-10T21:26:28.327+10:00Mixed SignalsMorning All<br />
<br />
Well I really thought the rally would pick up steam overnight. I went to bed soon after the US cash open and saw lots of sell stops going off only for price to snap right back. Often that is indicative of a false breakdown and good turning point. However, price has once again failed to kick on and we have drifted lower forming a short term range. I see mixed signals across markets.<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>S&P500 continues to hold the low end of the support range. The cash market made a lower low overnight but recovered strongly. Price is in a range from 1345 to 1365. Use breakouts above the latter level to get long. Emini S&P500 1340 is now the last stand for bulls. </li>
<li>Australia has come into my first major target zone and I believe it is time to get out of shorts. Short term traders could be looking for bullish turning points today out of 4250/60, SPI 4250/40. </li>
<li>Hang Seng has broken my daily trendline but we have seen no lower low thus far. Difficult to make a forecast here as price is still in the low end of the Daily range</li>
<li>The A Shares reversed yesterday right out of the top end of the range. There is a potential ending wedge pattern that was triggered yesterday. 2500 is key support</li>
<li>The KOPSI is testing major supports from 1925 to 1950.</li>
<li>EUR and AUD both continue to grind lower but there are bullish momentum divergences forming and some solid supports here. Sentiment is v.v.bearish. Potential bear traps forming. </li>
</ul>
In sum, I do think Bulls are successfully defending the low end of the range in the S&P500 and the DAX. We need to see follow through which has to come and NOW. Asia is a mixed bag but I am leaning bullish in some markets in the short term such as Australia and the Nikkei just for tactical short term buys. <br />
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<strong>S&P500 Daily:</strong><br />
Another reversal candle out of support<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Fcg-uZxg5ow/T6sAjbRUjtI/AAAAAAAAE3o/qcxrgz7MF2s/s1600/SPX+Daily+10+may3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dba="true" height="348" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Fcg-uZxg5ow/T6sAjbRUjtI/AAAAAAAAE3o/qcxrgz7MF2s/s640/SPX+Daily+10+may3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>S&P500 60mins:</strong><br />
If this is a A=C and swing low, price needs to move higher and now. Breaks of 1340 tonight open up 1330 and lower. <br />
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<strong>Emini S&P500 60mins:</strong><br />
Short term range from 1340/45 to 1360/65<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CsxGRae8gwI/T6sAvndGu4I/AAAAAAAAE34/bcor6976xr4/s1600/Eminis+60mins+10+may6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dba="true" height="348" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CsxGRae8gwI/T6sAvndGu4I/AAAAAAAAE34/bcor6976xr4/s640/Eminis+60mins+10+may6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>ASIA</strong><br />
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<strong>Australia</strong><br />
<strong>XJO Daily:</strong><br />
Multiple support here<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m3HOwPVH74Q/T6sA4Ai1SyI/AAAAAAAAE4A/j2clohpnc4o/s1600/xjo+Daily+10+may10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dba="true" height="348" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-m3HOwPVH74Q/T6sA4Ai1SyI/AAAAAAAAE4A/j2clohpnc4o/s640/xjo+Daily+10+may10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>XJO 60mins:</strong><br />
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<strong>AUD 60mins:</strong><br />
Tagged the 1.00 level in futures last night. See yesterdays post for the significance of this on the weekly chart. Price needs to recapture that line to trigger long traders for me. <br />
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<strong>CHINA</strong><br />
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<strong>HSI Daily:</strong><br />
Daily trendline broke yesterday which concerns me<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1lh0bzXiR1o/T6sBK-FoMSI/AAAAAAAAE4Y/4241UBKaBG4/s1600/HSI+Daily+10+may13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dba="true" height="348" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1lh0bzXiR1o/T6sBK-FoMSI/AAAAAAAAE4Y/4241UBKaBG4/s640/HSI+Daily+10+may13.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>HSI 60mins:</strong><br />
Price broke through my support zone yesterday. However, no lower lows thus unclear here to me.<br />
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<strong>A Shares Daily:</strong><br />
Reversal at the top end of the range. This was my strategic view. <br />
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<strong>A Shares 60mins:</strong><br />
Break of potential wedge pattern. Note 3 push higher on 3 lower peaks on the momentum indicator. 2500 is key support. <br />
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<strong>KOSPI Daily:</strong><br />
Multiple layers of support coming in at 1925 to 1950. Needs to hold otherwise this could be a genuine breakdown trade. <br />
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Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-45560014585292702352012-05-08T15:32:00.001+10:002012-05-10T21:28:46.574+10:00Got The Bounce- Now What?Good Afternoon All,<br />
<br />
Sorry for the late post today. Yesterday I was looking for a low risk buy trade into the panic and key support levels after a big Monday morning gap down: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/monday-morning-panic-buy.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/monday-morning-panic-buy.html</a>. As anticipated, we held in but the real move only began when the Europeans came in to drive the market higher, and a bear squeeze ensued. <br />
<br />
What I wanted to do in this post was try and give a more tactical posture as to where I think we are and the trading scenarios I am looking at. I am aware at times (like yesterday) that I am short term in my view when I see a short term trade lining up. For longer term traders and position traders, this may be confusing somewhat in the bigger picture. I want to attempt to show trading setups and scenarios so that traders of different timeframes can make informed decisions. <br />
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<strong>US</strong><br />
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<strong>S&P500 Daily</strong><br />
Strategic View: Bullish and following the uptrend. Targets 1475/1500. Only a daily close below 1340 would shift my stance to bearish opening up targets of 1290/1300.<br />
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Tactical Posture: Still looking to buy this sell off into 1360/1350 (cash). Stops below 1340. <br />
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As can be seen here, price is retesting the previous breakout zone and former resistance at 1340 to 1360. This is a low risk BUY area. The Daily trend remains up with all moving averages positive. I think we are in a consolidation/triangle type pattern. Last nights low clipped this pitchfork to a tee. <br />
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<strong>S&P500 60mins:</strong><br />
Short term view: Price is trading in the low end of the range. 1358/1360 obviously key support then 1350. The Eminis looked to have put in a climatic low at A=C whilst the cash market has put in a HIGHER low thus far. This is bullish if we can hold last nights cash low. <br />
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The short term trend is down and thus longer term traders need to look for price to regain 1385/1390 to confirm a new push higher and a confirmed low. <br />
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Intraday: we have seen a good rally back into the short term downtrend. Look for good resistance at 1375/1380 and potential shorts. If we fail to sell, look to join this move higher. <br />
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<strong>Emini S&P500 15mins:</strong><br />
Short term trend remains down. Looking for potential short trades at 1370/1375, looking to buy a retest of 1350/1355. A recapture of 1385 confirms a meaningful bigger picture low. <br />
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<strong>EUROPE</strong><br />
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<strong>DAX Daily:</strong><br />
Strategic view: Bullish and following the uptrend. My initial view of a low at 6500 was incorrect. However, my 6400 outlier level was clipped last night and price closed ABOVE 6500. A daily close below 6500/6400 would shift me to cautious. Looking for a retest of previous 2012 highs at 7200.<br />
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Tactical posture: Continue to favour buying in this zone, stops below 6400 (note 38.2 Fib comes in at 6350).<br />
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Yesterday we saw a bullish reversal candle and close back above 6500. I had 6400/6500 as a key inflection point and for now we are holding in....just.<br />
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Adding weight to this scenario is the Eurostoxx:<br />
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<strong>Eurostoxx Daily:</strong><br />
Bullish Engulfing candle just shy of the 61.8 fib retrace. <br />
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<strong>Eurostoxx 60mins:</strong><br />
I can count a complete 5 wave decline from the March highs. Yesterdays breakdown and strong recovery is indicative of a potential panic low. There really has been no decent bounce in terms of price or time since the March high and thus I think we are completing/have completed an impulsive down. This implies a good rally in price and time to come lasting at least a month. However, certainly need a lot more confirmation first for position traders. <br />
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Short term: Support 2240/2250, Resistance 2300/2350. Only strong breakouts ABOVE 2350 would confirm the count below. <br />
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<strong>Eurostoxx 60mins ii:</strong><br />
Momentum divergences coming into the low. Price recovered strongly after a initial panic open. <br />
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<strong>ASIA</strong><br />
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<strong>Australia Daily:</strong><br />
Strategic view: Bearish to Neutral. We remain in a solid range and clearly failed at the top end with a Double top trade forming. A close back above 4400 would shift my stance to more bullish. <br />
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Tactical posture: looking for a bounce in coming days to initiate short trades against 4400 resistance. This is a great market to pair short vs long other regions. <br />
<br />
Climatic reversal out of resistance. However, we have come into good supports in the short term with the 200day moving average and upward trendline. Trend remains up. Range from 4250/4300 to 4400/4450. <br />
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<strong>XJO 60mins:</strong><br />
Short term view: price is just holding the previous breakout zone and support area at 4320/4300. No confirmation of a meaningful low. Looking to short bounces back into the downtrend until a base pattern/bullish reversal pattern ensues. <br />
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<br />
<strong>Hang Seng Daily:</strong><br />
Strategic view: Bullish and following the uptrend. Concern on a break of the upward sloping trendline. A Daily close below 20,000 would be bearish and confirm onset of a potential C wave down. <br />
<br />
Tactical posture: A potential triangle/consolidation pattern continues to play out. Looking for a B wave retest of previous highs. <br />
<br />
Price bottomed yesterday right on the upward sloping trendline. If we can hold, look for a continued grind higher to retest previous highs. This scenario is right in the balance. <br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HBzhnpxC_PI/T6ihjYfy1GI/AAAAAAAAE08/4sV9_aRA104/s1600/HSI+Daily+8+may4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HBzhnpxC_PI/T6ihjYfy1GI/AAAAAAAAE08/4sV9_aRA104/s640/HSI+Daily+8+may4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<strong>Hang Seng 60mins:</strong><br />
Short term view: 20,400/20,500 remains key support. As long as this holds, look for potential gap fill targets into 20900/21000. Only a close back above 21,100 would confirm a continued move higher into the (B) wave target. <a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jCeKXTl_dcc/T6iifMMW4AI/AAAAAAAAE1E/wxv5kAhB2Ww/s1600/HSI+60mins+8+may3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jCeKXTl_dcc/T6iifMMW4AI/AAAAAAAAE1E/wxv5kAhB2Ww/s640/HSI+60mins+8+may3.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<strong>A Shares Daily:</strong><br />
Strategic view: Bearish to Neutral. Trading at the top end of the recent range. A Daily close above 2600/2650 would be bullish and invalidate this view (see A Shares Daily ii).<br />
<br />
Tactical posture: Looking for short setups into this zone. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4tvCuhFAYD4/T6ijO5XMrsI/AAAAAAAAE1M/jv8TGjEnpkI/s1600/A+Shares++Daily+8+may6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4tvCuhFAYD4/T6ijO5XMrsI/AAAAAAAAE1M/jv8TGjEnpkI/s640/A+Shares++Daily+8+may6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>A Shares Daily ii:</strong><br />
Potential triangle pattern. A break above 2600/2650 invalidates this view. A low risk short zone up here. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-POkwAlkkKl8/T6ijv9b-y0I/AAAAAAAAE1U/rqy2VITVoBA/s1600/A+Shares++Daily+key+chart+8+may8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-POkwAlkkKl8/T6ijv9b-y0I/AAAAAAAAE1U/rqy2VITVoBA/s640/A+Shares++Daily+key+chart+8+may8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>Nikkei Daily:</strong><br />
Strategic view: A tactical short term bullish view. Bigger picture unclear and neutral. <br />
<br />
Tactical posture: Looking for a short term swing trading BUY into this support zone and previous breakout level. Need to see bullish reversal candles to confirm the setup. No signal for now.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q16OgZ-QWwU/T6ikGRAKU6I/AAAAAAAAE1c/dGr0Orzcjws/s1600/Nikkei++Daily+8+may5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q16OgZ-QWwU/T6ikGRAKU6I/AAAAAAAAE1c/dGr0Orzcjws/s640/Nikkei++Daily+8+may5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<strong>Sensex Daily:</strong><br />
Strategic view: Neutral but BULLISH ON A DAILY CLOSE ABOVE 17,000<br />
<br />
Tactical posture: looking to get long on any retests of yesterdays lows.<br />
<br />
This is a potential bear trap and A=C support trade. Stops have to be placed under yesterdays lows. <br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lQ9_aPgYsmA/T6ilYhgkmjI/AAAAAAAAE1k/JSeI7KCejHY/s1600/Sensex+Daily+8+may11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lQ9_aPgYsmA/T6ilYhgkmjI/AAAAAAAAE1k/JSeI7KCejHY/s640/Sensex+Daily+8+may11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Thanks. Would appreciate any feedback on this format<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-68360993456142801272012-05-07T10:59:00.001+10:002012-05-10T21:25:10.729+10:00Monday Morning Panic=BUY?Morning All<br />
<br />
Well I had a whole host of things I wanted to write this morning but I will throw most of this out of the window having seen where the Futures have opened. There is no point dwelling on what HAS happened, but rather an action plan for today and going forth. This post will focus on the shorter term outlook. I will update Daily scenarios in due course. <br />
<br />
It all looks very ugly out there. However, these are the exact times to keep a cool head and be planned. It is also often the time to fade the crowd and do the uncomfortable thing. Looking through the charts today, I actually think we hold in here but I would be surprised to see a genuine bid until the Europeans and US step in. Asian traders will really need to be patient and perhaps sit on the sidelines or take low risk long trades with tight stops.<br />
<br />
<b>Emini S&P500</b><br />
We have gapped down over 10handles right into the A=C target of 1345. If I see some bullish reversal candles, I will look to get LONG. A break back above 1355 is needed for confirmation. If this level doesnt hold then look for support in low 40s. I will not be shorting down here. <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DJhrdjboyQY/T6cCkG3l6pI/AAAAAAAAEy8/_kd6TuVh3TA/s1600/emini+60mins+7+May6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DJhrdjboyQY/T6cCkG3l6pI/AAAAAAAAEy8/_kd6TuVh3TA/s640/emini+60mins+7+May6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>EUR 60mins:</b><br />
Gapped down right into support BUT hanging on a thread. Possible bear trap but only if we see real bullish reversal candles.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L9zOE4CU5ds/T6cCrfuFhWI/AAAAAAAAEzE/qV9t1s05zdk/s1600/EUR+60mins+7+May8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L9zOE4CU5ds/T6cCrfuFhWI/AAAAAAAAEzE/qV9t1s05zdk/s640/EUR+60mins+7+May8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Australia</b> <br />
<br />
<b>SPI 60mins:</b><br />
These are the support levels I have identified today. I think the bigger zone of support will be 4300/4290 and I will look for confirmation down there to get long. Note a minor support level at 4322 which is the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9yipqMwyfQ8/T6cBLSBEB1I/AAAAAAAAEyc/GHy9-zj4Y1A/s1600/SPI+60mins++7+May11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9yipqMwyfQ8/T6cBLSBEB1I/AAAAAAAAEyc/GHy9-zj4Y1A/s640/SPI+60mins++7+May11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>XJO 60mins:</b><br />
Looking like a gap down into the previous breakout zone. Keep this chart on your screens today. Should be a formidable buy zone after 3 days of weakness. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w8YssGyI6FY/T6cBi7NixFI/AAAAAAAAEyk/JGbEny5LOJ0/s1600/xjo+60mins++7+May12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w8YssGyI6FY/T6cBi7NixFI/AAAAAAAAEyk/JGbEny5LOJ0/s640/xjo+60mins++7+May12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>XJO Daily:</b><br />
Note that 200day moving average comes in today around 4300. <b> In the bigger picture, this double top pattern concerns me especially given the fact we topped right on the day of the 50bps cut- a bullish climatic event. </b><br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-I9St0yewSC4/T6cDFmEULYI/AAAAAAAAEzM/ao-Xh40x_f0/s1600/xjo+Daily++7+May13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-I9St0yewSC4/T6cDFmEULYI/AAAAAAAAEzM/ao-Xh40x_f0/s640/xjo+Daily++7+May13.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Japan</b><br />
<br />
<b>Nikkei Daily:</b><br />
The Nikkei will be back online today. They will certainly be hit with a bit of a shock. Note the 2 major target levels I have labelled here. Once again, waiting for confirmation to get long is the right play. No need to fight this breakdown for now.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IUvElPRKE68/T6cCInQTnlI/AAAAAAAAEys/9of70qqYyJI/s1600/Nikkei++Daily++7+May14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IUvElPRKE68/T6cCInQTnlI/AAAAAAAAEys/9of70qqYyJI/s640/Nikkei++Daily++7+May14.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>China </b><br />
<br />
<b>HSI 60mins:</b><br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hcEe1i2RQEY/T6cDW9GNP6I/AAAAAAAAEzU/4ujtt4n0zPc/s1600/hsi++60mins++7+May16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hcEe1i2RQEY/T6cDW9GNP6I/AAAAAAAAEzU/4ujtt4n0zPc/s640/hsi++60mins++7+May16.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>A-Shares 60mins:</b><br />
Still in a wedge like pattern with 2500/2480 key support. My target range was not hit but note the res level on the Daily chart underneath. <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RgXMu10qB0E/T6cDfjXT2YI/AAAAAAAAEzc/eKoPTbAPBYc/s1600/a+shares++60mins++7+May17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RgXMu10qB0E/T6cDfjXT2YI/AAAAAAAAEzc/eKoPTbAPBYc/s640/a+shares++60mins++7+May17.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>A Shares- Daily:</b><br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c6Gr5zHw1hw/T6cDxrcKAxI/AAAAAAAAEzk/Isw3UvpCo3k/s1600/a+shares+daily++7+May18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c6Gr5zHw1hw/T6cDxrcKAxI/AAAAAAAAEzk/Isw3UvpCo3k/s640/a+shares+daily++7+May18.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Bottom line, there is a lot of panic out there given the European headlines and markets are coming into some solid supports. I do think we will hold in but waiting for confirmation is key. No need to jump the gun. If this keeps falling and spiralling out of control- fine, let it do so. However, the best risk/reward shorts are not in this zone and if you are going to join this breakdown, you have to keep it nimble or have very wide stops. In the bigger picture, I could certainly make a bearish scenario but lets focus on the here and now.Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-86610167133522941172012-05-04T09:42:00.002+10:002012-05-04T09:42:37.613+10:00Non-Farms SetupsPls find my origianl post here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/non-farm-setups.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/non-farm-setups.html</a><br />
<br />
Morning All<br />
<br />
Yesterday I advised short term caution for traders in Australia: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/bit-of-caution.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/bit-of-caution.html</a>. The market was indeed lethargic with price opening on its highs and drifting lower/sideways for the rest of the day in a small range. Weakness in overseas markets overnight will see Asia open weaker again this morning and thus my caution was warranted. Now we are in a very interesting zone indeed across markets. <br />
<br />
<strong>Australia</strong><br />
<br />
<strong>SPI futures 60mins:</strong><br />
I have shown this chart a few times of late with that upward sloping trendling capping the "breakout". Now we are indicated early at 4415/4410 which is right into the low end of the channel and previous breakout zone. <br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nkENSC9kU_8/T6MQU0N_KFI/AAAAAAAAExQ/8fKBG5gHo9E/s1600/spi+60mins+4+may3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nkENSC9kU_8/T6MQU0N_KFI/AAAAAAAAExQ/8fKBG5gHo9E/s640/spi+60mins+4+may3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>SPI futures 15mins:</strong><br />
I have zoomed in here to make the levels more apparent. We have minor support at 4415, then a stronger confluence coming in a 4405/4407. <br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NelJXLM_FR4/T6MQrzuS15I/AAAAAAAAExY/49Ms-vOorCE/s1600/spi+15mins+4+may4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NelJXLM_FR4/T6MQrzuS15I/AAAAAAAAExY/49Ms-vOorCE/s640/spi+15mins+4+may4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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</div>
Thus we are retesting the previous breakout zone and upward trend. This is a low risk buy for the intraday trader as long as price holds 4400/4398. We have the RBA monetary policy coming out at 11.30am. Obviously note it is non-farm payrolls tonight and thus I would be keeping positions very tight ahead of this, especially with French and Greek elections next week.<br />
<br />
<strong>My SPI range: 4405 to 4430. Outlier levels 4398/4400 and </strong>4440<strong>.</strong><br />
<br />
<strong>AUD 240mins:</strong><br />
The A=C short trade in AUD played out to a tee at the 1.04 level. However, now is the time to be unwinding shorts into this zone. I would really be surprised if this just kept breaking lower and lower without a pause at a minimum. This adds weight to the bullish scenario. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-16ykWA9YWaU/T6MStPtcHXI/AAAAAAAAExo/YipkyuquRxU/s1600/aud+60mins+4+may.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-16ykWA9YWaU/T6MStPtcHXI/AAAAAAAAExo/YipkyuquRxU/s640/aud+60mins+4+may.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Japan remains closed today. Turning to other Asian markets. </div>
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<br /></div>
<strong>Hang Seng 60mins:</strong><br />
I still remain bullish this market and I am still looking for the target zone to be hit in coming days. Obviously we will be looking at some small weakness early so look for potential buy spots into this upward trend. A risk to my view would be a meaningful break below 21k. <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EZedU0JGOQE/T6MTN7GNXKI/AAAAAAAAExw/5CikWjypd24/s1600/hsi+60mins+4+may1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EZedU0JGOQE/T6MTN7GNXKI/AAAAAAAAExw/5CikWjypd24/s640/hsi+60mins+4+may1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong>A Shares 60mins:</strong><br />
This is one market that I got wrong. After the return from holidays, the A-Shares broke meaningfully above my low risk short zone. Thus, we look to follow the uptrend once more. Only a close back below 2500 would make me bearish.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6kjwJewxjug/T6MTzG29ZlI/AAAAAAAAEx4/twEBIWx1w_I/s1600/A+Shares+60mins+4+may2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6kjwJewxjug/T6MTzG29ZlI/AAAAAAAAEx4/twEBIWx1w_I/s640/A+Shares+60mins+4+may2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
One of the best setups I see in the Equities land is the DAX. Price has sold off right into my ideal spot and I would be looking for low risk LONG trades with stops below 6000. See my original bigger picture post on this market here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/importance-of-dax.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/importance-of-dax.html</a><br />
<br />
<strong>DAX 60mins:</strong><br />
5 wave move off the low and a corrective move lower back into support and the 61.8 retrace level. This support zone should be formidable. Note the outlier level at 6600 which is an A=C target off the recent high and open gap target.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p3-ne7TEdxQ/T6MUMU_eT5I/AAAAAAAAEyA/gM2g6a4s8PQ/s1600/DAX+60mins+4+may.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p3-ne7TEdxQ/T6MUMU_eT5I/AAAAAAAAEyA/gM2g6a4s8PQ/s640/DAX+60mins+4+may.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<strong>S&amp;P500 60mins:</strong><br />
The S&amp;P500 is also retesting the previous breakout zone and thus a low risk buy area ahead of the non-farm numbers. I don't position ahead of these numbers BUT I think an ideal setup would be a relatively weak number and a quick break lower into 1385/1380. I would then look for bullish hammers/reversal candles out of there to get LONG. <br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-51RlXqgRXik/T6MUxKOH4bI/AAAAAAAAEyI/DulKhfrr1Sw/s1600/sp500++60mins+4+may1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-51RlXqgRXik/T6MUxKOH4bI/AAAAAAAAEyI/DulKhfrr1Sw/s640/sp500++60mins+4+may1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<strong>Emini S&amp;P500 60mins:</strong><br />
Last night the 1390 support zone dropped. To me, this could be setting up a bear trap. I have seen people touting this as a "Head and Shoulders" top which are my favourite patterns to fade. However, only a bullish move back above 1390 would trigger this. Tonight, as per the cash chart above, I will be looking for a flush down to 1380s to get long with tight stops. <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qytbs3kqCf4/T6MVh84Q1UI/AAAAAAAAEyQ/xrenQGet39k/s1600/emini+60mins+4+may2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qytbs3kqCf4/T6MVh84Q1UI/AAAAAAAAEyQ/xrenQGet39k/s640/emini+60mins+4+may2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
In sum, we have seen good pullbacks into the trend in a number of equity markets. I think this is setting up for a potential low risk/buy area. Of course I am nervous given that we made a high right on the first day of the month, and a seasonally weak time of year. However, I still think this market has higher to go first. <br />
<br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-21974443007464256812012-05-03T10:44:00.001+10:002012-05-03T10:46:04.833+10:00Caution AustraliaMorning All,<br />
<br />
Just thought I would focus solely on the Australian market today. Yesterday was an inside day and rather quiet indeed. We are indicated relatively unch from yesterdays close and thus it would appear we are set for another range bound session again. I gather the good old boys at Macquarie have been hosting a big conference that has all the fund managers, dealers and sales staff off the desk. They might return at some point today with a bit of ammo but more likely give them until next week when the hangovers have worn off. <br />
<br />
To me, it would appear the market is a bit overextended here. I would not be surprised to see a pullback over the next few sessions.<br />
<br />
<strong>XJO 60mins:</strong><br />
We are at the top end of 2 different channels here which should offer meaningful res in the short term. Potentially we have seen a climatic spillover post the RBA decision. I do think we are likely to see a pullback into the previous breakout zone of 4390/4400 at a minimum. The inability of the market to really push higher post this "surprise" 50bps cut has me concerned. <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAogsXuvC40/T6HBr6WnVrI/AAAAAAAAEwM/Cn54oAN7UC4/s1600/xjo+60mins+3rd+may+correct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" mea="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAogsXuvC40/T6HBr6WnVrI/AAAAAAAAEwM/Cn54oAN7UC4/s640/xjo+60mins+3rd+may+correct.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<strong>XJO 15mins:</strong><br />
Here is the short term channel in more detail. <br />
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<strong>SPI 5mins: </strong><br />
We are indicated at 4430 first thing. This puts us right into yesterdays range. I have outlined the clear boundaries in the short term with 4400 offering good resistance and 4420/25 support. Thus quite simply I will be playing these levels until we see a breakout either way. If 4440 breaks to the upside, I will short once more at 4445 vs the 4448 spike high on Tuesday. <br />
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<br />
I showed these charts a few days ago and it is time to update. The underlying major single stocks give me cause for concern at this juncture. Once again, I would expect us to consolidate here at a minimum but some "profit taking" is the more likely scenario. <br />
<br />
<strong>CBA Daily:</strong><br />
The 61.8 retrace off the last major high comes in at 53.25 i.e. yesterdays highs. Note there is also a meaningful barrier at $54. It is time to get out of longs into this formidable zone. <br />
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<strong>CBA Daily 2:</strong><br />
Price is almost parabolic into this resistance zone/sell zone. Potential climatic overthrow here. Once again, caution in the short term. <br />
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<strong>BHP 60mins:</strong><br />
61.8 Fib retrace off the last swing high comes in at $36.50 i.e. yesterdays high. <br />
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<strong>BHP 60mins 2:</strong><br />
Top end of trend channel into resistance; bearish momentum divergences; a potential 5 wave move off the low complete. All in all, that should be a formidable wall. <a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CSqi1VinW-s/T6HEjvDviiI/AAAAAAAAExE/GA26-iMfhyA/s1600/bhp+60mins+3+3rd+may4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" mea="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CSqi1VinW-s/T6HEjvDviiI/AAAAAAAAExE/GA26-iMfhyA/s640/bhp+60mins+3+3rd+may4.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<strong>My SPI range:</strong> 4415 to 4440. Outlier levels 4400/4395 and 4448. <br />
<br />
<strong>My SPI plan:</strong> Buying 4220s with tight stops and shorting 4240s more aggressively. If I see a solid break through the 4220, I will short targeting the round number. Note there was size on the bid yesterday at 4223/24 and thus look to see if it is again there today.<br />
<br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-83369107604444940422012-04-27T16:54:00.001+10:002012-04-27T18:27:58.394+10:00DAX StrategyDespite being based in Asia and primarily focused on Asian markets, at times we have to look to our overseas peers to gain insight into market developments. In particular, at this juncture I see a genuine bullish turning point in the strongest European equity market- the DAX. Not only does this present a great trading and investment opportunity, but it is also of central importance to global markets I believe for the upcoming few months. <br />
<br />
<strong>DAX Weekly: </strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Price has retested and held the key upward sloping 55 day moving average and trendline. Here I have emphasised the importance of this 55ema since the start of the bull market began in 2009 in forming both intermediate highs and key lows. </li>
<li>The sell off from the recent March high has been the first meaningful pullback and test of the 55ema since the price breakout in Jan 2012. Buying pullbacks into a clearly defined uptrend is a low risk/high reward play. Risk for the bulls is now clearly defined below 6500. </li>
<li>As is stands, price has put in a bullish reversal candle. We await final confirmation at the close of today. </li>
<li>The target for a new move higher would be up to the previous highs located at 7200 initially. There is very much the potential for a retest of 7600 but it is important to see how price reacts at 7200 first. </li>
</ul>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzmILxFIUzJdkIOi5y8vhkos9_CKkAcKRUCDxMyT7_yuhIcpnTfHIZG_pN4cEcBRlKPZ8ahEVviHh7S8Ez6C4BOeCaz7uJtaNnRR1J9JyHy9Dm_rtyv3FEaT-l9S-8LIPfRQxOYbYJbFG1/s1600/DAX+Weekly+27+April.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" oda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzmILxFIUzJdkIOi5y8vhkos9_CKkAcKRUCDxMyT7_yuhIcpnTfHIZG_pN4cEcBRlKPZ8ahEVviHh7S8Ez6C4BOeCaz7uJtaNnRR1J9JyHy9Dm_rtyv3FEaT-l9S-8LIPfRQxOYbYJbFG1/s640/DAX+Weekly+27+April.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<strong>Weekly Bullish. Price must hold above 6500 with 6400 an outlier. <strong>The trend remains up and this "correction" should serve as a great opportunity for investors to increase exposure to this market. A weekly close below 6500 would put my scenario in Jeopardy.</strong></strong><br />
<br />
<strong>DAX Daily (i):</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Price put in a low right on a confluence of the 38.2 Fib retrace off the last major swing low, and the upward sloping bullish trendline.</li>
<li>Note most importantly that the high of the strong bearish breakdown candle on the 23rd April has been taken out. This is indicative of a climatic low and bear trap, especially when coupled with the support confluence. </li>
</ul>
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<br />
<strong>DAX Daily (ii):</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Head and Shoulders patterns are "classic" chart formations that have a very high failure rate. In technical analysis, some of the strongest trading plays are actually <strong>failed patterns</strong>. The crowd is positioned for an outcome and when it fails to materialise, the market is forced to cover with a strong squueze ensuing. A market that fails to breakdown has underlying strength. </li>
<li>The signal for a bear trap to get long is a bullish close back above the neckline. We have seen 3 consecutive bullish candles above this neckline and this is strong confirmation of a meaningful low.</li>
</ul>
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<br />
<strong>DAX Daily (iii):</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Elliott Wave count highlights the potential end of a wave 4 correction with a retest of the previous highs up at 7200 the next probable swing. </li>
<li>The key to this count is identifying the strongest momentum within the wave iii of 3 up. The recent low has formed in the previous iv of minor degree. </li>
<li>A break above 6800 in the short term should signal a new swing higher underway and likely 5th wave up.</li>
</ul>
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<br />
<strong>DAX 60mins (i):</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Dropping down a timeframe, we can see clear bullish momentum divergences coming in on the low and a strong subsequent rally. Price tried to break through key supports on 3 occasions but failed to follow through. </li>
<li>This rally has now broken out from a trend channel and the short term open gap has been filled.</li>
<li>After such a prolonged downtrend, it is likely that price will need to consolidate in a sideways like fashion between 6800 and 6600 before the next break higher ensues. </li>
</ul>
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<br />
<strong>DAX 60mins (ii):</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>The DAX looks to have completed an ABC corrective pattern off the high. Note the relationships throughout the pattern which validates this most notably Wave 1=5; Wave 3=1.618 (Wave 1)</li>
<li>A move above 6800 would confirm this pattern and act as a trigger for breakout traders. </li>
</ul>
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<br />
<strong>DAX 60mins (iii):</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Just keeping things simple, we have seen 7 clear waves from the recent high. This is a corrective pattern and thus implies a new trend higher. If price trades below 6500, this invalidates this interpretation and thus this becomes a clear marker and stop loss level. </li>
</ul>
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<br />
<strong>DAX 15mins:</strong><br />
<ul>
<li>Finally, we have seen a 5 wave impulse move off the recent low. This implies another 5 wave move at a minimum after a small corrective phase. I view this as evidence of a meaningful trend change and the beginning of a new move higher.</li>
</ul>
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<br />
In sum, the correction off the March highs has halted right into the weekly uptrend. Buying dips into a clearly defined uptrend is the name of the game. The lower timeframes are displaying bullish price action and follow through off the 6500 low. Elliott Wave counts also point to a meaningful low and the resumption of a new trend higher. The risk to this view is a break back down below 6500. <br />
<br />
In the short term, 6750 to 6800 is strong overhead resistance and this should cap price for the next few days, especially after seeing a clear 5 wave move up off the low. <strong>Price has also traded from low to recent high in 3 consecutive days so expect some weakness in today's trade</strong>. On the downside, there should be very strong support at 6600 to 6650 and short term traders should be looking to buy that dip. Breakouts above 6800 would confirm a new trend up into the targets below. <br />
<br />
<strong>Targets for a new uptrend:</strong><br />
1) <strong>6950 to 7000.</strong> This is an open gap target from the 4th April. Note the 61.8 Fibonacci retrace off the March highs to the most recent lows comes in at <strong>6930</strong>. <br />
2) <strong>7050</strong>. Swing high and 78.6 retrace. <br />
3) <strong>7200.</strong> March high and major target for this move<br />
<br />
Any break below 6500 would invalidate this bullish interpretation and short term traders should have stops under this level. Note for longer term traders there is a bullish outlier level at 6400/6350. This is the October 2009 high and the 38.2 retrace from 2012 high to September 2011 low.<br />
<br />
Key risks to my analysis remains the EUROSTOXX and the unravelling of the debt crisis. Key support levels there remain 2250 and 2200. The latter level should be formidable. <br />
<br />
Thanks<br />
Austin<br />
<br />
<br />Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-21980375829898602422012-04-26T17:14:00.001+10:002012-04-26T17:14:41.988+10:00S&P500 Trading PlanMy Emini S&P500 trading plan for tonight can be found here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/emini-s-plan-tonight.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/emini-s-plan-tonight.html</a><br />
<br />
Thanks and Good Luck<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-58853790363650814022012-04-24T11:14:00.000+10:002012-04-24T11:14:19.428+10:00Tuesdays TuesdaysBeen some good calls of late. This mornings post can be found here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/morning-all-well-we-got-it.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/morning-all-well-we-got-it.html</a><br />
<br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-1022115227065271152012-04-20T10:31:00.000+10:002012-04-20T10:31:18.661+10:00USA Weakness AheadMorning All,<br />
<br />
I wanted to spend some time talking through some setups in the US this morning. I think we are on the cusp of a potential breakdown into 1340/1350 at a minimum and thus this is of central importance to global markets. My Asia targets in the XJO, A Shares and the Hang Seng (1st target) were hit to a tee yesterday: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/asia-setups.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/asia-setups.html</a>. We hit 4377 in the XJO cash and 2500 in the A Shares, and then sold off. We are looking at a small gap down this morning and lets see if this now picks up steam. <br />
<br />
So to the US. I wanted to give the rally the benefit of the doubt but clearly we have struggled in this 1385/1390 zone. My line in the sand was 1370 (cash) and the low overnight was 1370.5. Thus we haven't broken through supports yet but I believe it is only a matter of time. I was watching the Emini S&amp;P500 intensely yesterday during the Spanish auction and there was a large offer up there at 1390 that just would not budge. Repeated attempts to break higher were slapped down. I have always said that to be a good trader, you have to be flexible- well I believe now is one of those points. <br />
<br />
Let me expand: <br />
<br />
<strong>S&amp;P500 Daily:</strong><br />
We are still holding the upward trendline BUT each bounce out of this line is getting weaker and weaker. Each repeated test of this line implies genuine weakness. Price should bounce and not look back. When it becomes obvious, it is prone to a breakdown. In my trading, I use the "3rd test" as the prelude to a breakdown. Well here we are.<br />
<br />
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<strong>S&amp;P500 60mins:</strong><br />
Keeping things simple firstly- this is a clear bear flag under resistance. Price <strong>failed</strong> to break higher. I could count this an A=C pattern off the recent low as price is overlapping and not impulsing. In the bigger picture, breaks through the 1370 support level open up a potential C leg lower but that is secondary consideration for now. <br />
<br />
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<br />
<strong>S&amp;P500 5mins:</strong><br />
Zooming in more detail, price tried to break above its previous highs and failed last night. Some will argue that the move into the high looks like a 3 and the move lower last night also looks like a 3 wave move. Well pls note that the Emini futures did make a new high at 1390 vs 1388.75 previous high (18th April). This could be a truncated 5 wave move in the cash= bearish. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JAzFf7HoNQM/T5Cf6YwirxI/AAAAAAAAEnI/1UtuWv8EVoI/s1600/SP500+5mins+count+20+april2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="342" qda="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JAzFf7HoNQM/T5Cf6YwirxI/AAAAAAAAEnI/1UtuWv8EVoI/s640/SP500+5mins+count+20+april2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>Emini 60mins:</strong><br />
Here is my simple short trade setup. I am shorting 1/2 size below the 1378 level. My stops will be above 1385 and if you can place wider stops use the 1390 level. I will add on confirmed breaks of that upward sloping trendline and the 1370 level cash (1366 eminis).<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4wB83tw6fwU/T5Cft-n_2cI/AAAAAAAAEnA/7zj59g5WtME/s1600/Emini+60mins+20+april.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4wB83tw6fwU/T5Cft-n_2cI/AAAAAAAAEnA/7zj59g5WtME/s640/Emini+60mins+20+april.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
Confirming evidence.<br />
<br />
<strong>DOW Industrial 60mins:</strong><br />
This makes me very bearish. An A=C pattern off the low completed; an attempted breakout through resistance that failed; and last night we broke through the low end of that trendline with strength. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ALPcTGOwRsQ/T5ChEXUQnPI/AAAAAAAAEnQ/ukf7mCQ2EfE/s1600/DOw+60mins+20+April.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ALPcTGOwRsQ/T5ChEXUQnPI/AAAAAAAAEnQ/ukf7mCQ2EfE/s640/DOw+60mins+20+April.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>Russell 2000 60mins:</strong><br />
How do the midcaps look? Well the bounce off the low was weaker and also a clear ABC overlap. Price could not break above resistance. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8SZU0l3gSNQ/T5Chrn7o1eI/AAAAAAAAEnY/J1zRuF40_lM/s1600/RUSSELL+60mins+20+April1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8SZU0l3gSNQ/T5Chrn7o1eI/AAAAAAAAEnY/J1zRuF40_lM/s640/RUSSELL+60mins+20+April1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
And the European bounce was slapped firmly back down yesterday.<br />
<br />
<strong>Eurostoxx Daily:</strong><br />
Strong candle that was completely filled yesterday. The upward sloping trendline has broken. The target for this move is down at the 61.8 fib at 2200 so still some way to go<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vq3ufZ_Vrj0/T5CiYehMRzI/AAAAAAAAEno/I5ifDpUONwg/s1600/Estoxx+Daily++20+April1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vq3ufZ_Vrj0/T5CiYehMRzI/AAAAAAAAEno/I5ifDpUONwg/s640/Estoxx+Daily++20+April1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
Perhaps I am jumping the gun. I was bullish primarily because of the AUD and this has not broken any supports at all yet and the EUR held in well. I have to trade the stock setups in front of me however and use the currencies as secondary considerations for now. <br />
<br />
My SPI range today: 4340 to 4380. Outlier levels 4325 and 4395/4400<br />
<br />
Thanks AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-51161638998338390752012-04-19T09:35:00.002+10:002012-04-19T09:35:19.908+10:00Asia SetupsMorning All<br />
<br />
Last night we saw consolidation and a clear short term range in the S&amp;P500 after Tuesdays strong gains. I sold half my long position in the mid 80s and am looking for the 1395/1400 zone to get out of the rest as I said yesterday. Certainly there are a few things that are giving me concern. The DOW and the RUSSELL 60min charts both look like clear A=C patterns off the low. They sold off the heaviest last night after the targets were hit. However, to me there are some clear markers in the S&amp;P500 and until these are broken, you just have to focus on this uptrend, especially after Tuesdays kick off. This level is 1370 in the cash index and price must hold above here. Below there I start getting bearish. Over the last few days, I have seen so many technicians who are looking for a top/Wave "2" high in the 1390/1395 region- when the crowd are all looking for the same thing, it v.v.rarely plays out. <br />
<br />
To the Asian setups. I wanted to start with the Australian Dollar and this is one of the main reasons for my positive outlook currently. The 240min chart v.aptly highlights my thoughts:<br />
<br />
<strong>AUD continuous futures 240mins:</strong><br />
We had a prolonged downtrend that ended with a base pattern/my 3 Indians ending pattern. Note the bullish divergences coming into the low and the heightened bearish sentiment given the interest rate cut cycle. Markets price that in! Now price is beginning a new short term uptrend. This is how markets transition. All the moving averages are up on this timeframe. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dKH2eg9E8lI/T49I8XEPKOI/AAAAAAAAElI/RoutOxEGCkQ/s1600/AUD+240mins.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dKH2eg9E8lI/T49I8XEPKOI/AAAAAAAAElI/RoutOxEGCkQ/s640/AUD+240mins.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>AUD June 60mins:</strong><br />
Zooming in more detail. As you can see here, price clearly continues to hold 1.0220/1.0240. I think we are now setup for a continued climb higher into 1.0450/1.05 and I would be long into that zone. There is a lot of disbelief and skepticism out there towards this currency right now and that will fuel an extended move higher. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GrauFh90WV8/T49KVZNBCrI/AAAAAAAAElQ/i38vDzzj-Bo/s1600/AUD+60mins1+19+april.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GrauFh90WV8/T49KVZNBCrI/AAAAAAAAElQ/i38vDzzj-Bo/s640/AUD+60mins1+19+april.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
To stocks:<br />
<br />
<strong>XJO Daily:</strong><br />
Still stuck in a broad range but testing the top end of the range. Like you, I have no idea if this does breakout and thus I continue to focus on the short term and making money intraday. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JEMR6bUvVrE/T49K_9n_aFI/AAAAAAAAElY/5nQw9AYn0Wg/s1600/ASX200+Daily+19+April.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JEMR6bUvVrE/T49K_9n_aFI/AAAAAAAAElY/5nQw9AYn0Wg/s640/ASX200+Daily+19+April.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
One pattern that I was watching v.intensely and played out perfectly was BHP. <br />
<br />
<strong>BHP Daily:</strong><br />
This was a classic bear trap as everyone was transfixed on $34/33.80. Sure enough we saw a false break and price immediately regathered the breakdown level. If the ASX200 is to breakout, it will be this stock that leads us. Lots of resistance points but we are not far off breaking a small downward trendline.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-z-MbHDKy1Zc/T49LdC5s-cI/AAAAAAAAElg/wrccRphfdGs/s1600/BHP+Daily+19+April2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-z-MbHDKy1Zc/T49LdC5s-cI/AAAAAAAAElg/wrccRphfdGs/s640/BHP+Daily+19+April2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>XJO 15mins:</strong><br />
These are the levels I am watching coming into today. Breaks of 4350 open up a retest of 4380 in coming days. Yesterday we saw v.little intraday movement but the fact we held onto gains was encouraging. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-k7m1fys52FA/T49LlWCtTlI/AAAAAAAAElo/8sQu2KcEysU/s1600/ASX200+15mins+19+April1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-k7m1fys52FA/T49LlWCtTlI/AAAAAAAAElo/8sQu2KcEysU/s640/ASX200+15mins+19+April1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>My SPI range today:</strong> 4345 to 4365. Outlier levels 4388/4390. <br />
<br />
Core intraday ideas:<br />
i) BUY dips to 4345/40 looking for a retest of the 60/65 level. <br />
ii) SHORT scalp 4365. If price fails to sell here, you must get long and join the breakout targeting the high 80s/4390.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>Hang Seng 60mins:</strong><br />
I still think this is a bullish setup in Hong Kong and self explanatory. Get into this short term uptrend targeting 21,000 firstly then as high as 21,600 if markets continue to climb this wall of worry which I think they will for now. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Vq__zDa2O4k/T49MG1e7ALI/AAAAAAAAElw/6gCzc-i8us0/s1600/HSI+60mins1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Vq__zDa2O4k/T49MG1e7ALI/AAAAAAAAElw/6gCzc-i8us0/s640/HSI+60mins1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
Whats my one concern? The Shanghai Composite which is coming into a great short zone as a Trader. Perhaps this is an ideal hedge for long positions. <br />
<br />
<strong>A Shares 60mins:</strong><br />
Overhead resistance at 2500 which is a previous breakdown zone and the 61.8 Fibonacci level. We also have a small outlier level at 2520 which would possibly setup up a 3 peak/Indian pattern and subsequent bearish turn. I am seeing bearish momentum divergences on the lower time frames with each move higher which is an important backdrop for a bearish turn. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pNouxfXAHzU/T49MuXzIJ2I/AAAAAAAAEl4/_UvYn75pfG8/s1600/A+shares+60mins.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pNouxfXAHzU/T49MuXzIJ2I/AAAAAAAAEl4/_UvYn75pfG8/s640/A+shares+60mins.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-83596978947910013372012-04-18T10:11:00.002+10:002012-04-18T10:11:58.449+10:00The Power of TuesdaysPls see todays post here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/power-of-tuesdays.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/power-of-tuesdays.html</a><br />
<br />
Got a great move yesterday. Have to now keep the ball rolling<br />
<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-48107337144393997352012-04-17T09:30:00.001+10:002012-04-17T09:31:24.073+10:00Moving DayToday's post can be found here: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/moving-day.html">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/moving-day.html</a><br />
<br />
Just to re-emphasise my action plan today, here are my trading thoughts for the SPI:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><strong>My SPI range today:</strong> 4305 to 4335. Outlier levels 4298, 4290 and 4340. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">My Core SPI day trading ideas today:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">i)SHORT fade 4315 early with tight stops. This is right into yesterdays highs and decent overhead resistance. If we fail to sell from here then we know that a breakout back up to 4335 is on the cards so flip to long. </div><br />
ii)BUY a breakout above 4315. Look for a strong 5min candle above this zone. Target 4330s. <br />
<br />
iii)BUY a retest of 4300/4298. Any early weakness into this support zone should be bought with tight stops.<br />
<br />
<strong>SPI 5mins:</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3xuvSiCvM-IBWexllNHNyctTT_nVUyxy1c8McbEkNOI1zHKPOjViqbK6k5tKBEHB7grtowxAhTApJYCdSt1_wiLeLW-sCZKvBBtHP8te751ugNlDyG_fqvD9BdrQh-2QhyphenhyphenG8yznYDQTHC/s1600/SPI+5mins+17+april+3+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3xuvSiCvM-IBWexllNHNyctTT_nVUyxy1c8McbEkNOI1zHKPOjViqbK6k5tKBEHB7grtowxAhTApJYCdSt1_wiLeLW-sCZKvBBtHP8te751ugNlDyG_fqvD9BdrQh-2QhyphenhyphenG8yznYDQTHC/s640/SPI+5mins+17+april+3+2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>SPI 15mins:</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K3Noghex2VA/T4yoQQ2jAvI/AAAAAAAAEjQ/sheslcx2LM0/s1600/SPI+15mins+17+april+3+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" nda="true" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K3Noghex2VA/T4yoQQ2jAvI/AAAAAAAAEjQ/sheslcx2LM0/s640/SPI+15mins+17+april+3+1.png" width="640" /></a></div>Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-49182641531668598122012-04-16T13:43:00.001+10:002012-04-16T13:45:04.061+10:00Monday Morning SetupsFor the first time in a long while, selling into resistance in the S&P500 worked. On Friday night I put up a great short setup into the 1385 resistance zone and this played out: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/ides-of-march.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/ides-of-march.html</a><br />
<br />
<strong>Emini S&P500 Setup:</strong><br />
This was the sell zone that I showed on Friday<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB1q5uDDBGrH4o5L6IR53Ew2FI_rHDYrRQ8Xx2JlmyCtkQkz5AEykhymbfIf1V6T0KN19_DvQAah1jf9iVkabD1ZdUQJUeKw_G5Z8w5T164DE-IgtRwx9OLTggtbWqmAFeLHDc8g4-WGPj/s1600/Eminis+60mins+13+april2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB1q5uDDBGrH4o5L6IR53Ew2FI_rHDYrRQ8Xx2JlmyCtkQkz5AEykhymbfIf1V6T0KN19_DvQAah1jf9iVkabD1ZdUQJUeKw_G5Z8w5T164DE-IgtRwx9OLTggtbWqmAFeLHDc8g4-WGPj/s640/Eminis+60mins+13+april2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<strong>Emini S&P500 60mins:</strong><br />
And this is what we got. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4gvPx3bkWxScEvryECh7lWCQsk50_jA9zzdh_u4mJiPKiP33NwNYoIL6N2H4kNOn2JrI_P3MUB-z32gs8tkGRuEgdo1r4mb0DIkK4MRSRUssEvLpDVMzXCuWtDxKuk3PWXr5-9xgoknle/s1600/Emini+60mins+16+April.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4gvPx3bkWxScEvryECh7lWCQsk50_jA9zzdh_u4mJiPKiP33NwNYoIL6N2H4kNOn2JrI_P3MUB-z32gs8tkGRuEgdo1r4mb0DIkK4MRSRUssEvLpDVMzXCuWtDxKuk3PWXr5-9xgoknle/s640/Emini+60mins+16+April.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
Right here it is a tricky one. We are right into the low end of the range and decent supports at 1355/1360. A number of things make me think that we will actually hold in:<br />
i) The S&P500 cash does not look like an impulse from its Friday high<br />
ii) Underlying breadth was not particularly weak. In fact, the no of declining issues was 2298 vs a high of 2618 on the 10th April and 2500 on the 4th. Clearly we are now seeing divergences<br />
iii) Currencies did not really sell on Friday night and are now retesting big supports which I think they hold. <br />
<br />
Thus, I have got out of most of my short position. I do want to hold some but it just doesn't look right for now. Having said that, the weekly close on the S&P500 was bearish in my eyes and we closed BELOW my key 1375/1380 pivot. Especially given my thoughts re the month of March, I do very much think that this will be a bigger picture pullback. Thus I am rather torn between the short and long term perspectives. For now, look to see how we act in the 1355/1360 Emini support zone. <br />
<br />
<strong> S&P500 Weekly:</strong><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKr9KAdxMevJx0XmnU-WobRoVveO2_y9JrsCoUJXl7IZaYKQY-t1Ra1YTNRSWe3xCm0wFpE9jpwbaKWTEF6-hZxlGBm6csnD0v0VP1GgoxK7qY6nOxl0ST-WP4WfXvc9xY17C4JIH-m-6l/s1600/SP+Weekly+16+april.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKr9KAdxMevJx0XmnU-WobRoVveO2_y9JrsCoUJXl7IZaYKQY-t1Ra1YTNRSWe3xCm0wFpE9jpwbaKWTEF6-hZxlGBm6csnD0v0VP1GgoxK7qY6nOxl0ST-WP4WfXvc9xY17C4JIH-m-6l/s640/SP+Weekly+16+april.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Asia could be on the cusp of a Wave 3 down type moment. No doubt there are very rare but they are low risk short setups. I am not seeing enough confirmation yet to have confidence with these but it is no doubt worth having in mind if Europe and the US keeps selling in the short term. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>ASX200 60mins:</strong></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I highlight a potential ending diagonal on Thursday and looking for possible long trades: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/thursday-plan.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/thursday-plan.html</a>. This played out but price was stopped in its tracks by the 61.8 Fib. If we give up the gains seen on Friday, I think this would be bearish indeed. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZov_tt9zG6OhPTyoHUMVjDQoo0ZGGdn09MIR90vaFpC3nBathyphenhyphenHAaSIl78IT_EEvfuH1NK7QLVGtopT1m4YYF28oc-ULGu3533B78Y2S9I53JcoLLI3mwyA1Dpd0h3bN_BXRDVNzNJxWM/s1600/xjo+60mins++16+april+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZov_tt9zG6OhPTyoHUMVjDQoo0ZGGdn09MIR90vaFpC3nBathyphenhyphenHAaSIl78IT_EEvfuH1NK7QLVGtopT1m4YYF28oc-ULGu3533B78Y2S9I53JcoLLI3mwyA1Dpd0h3bN_BXRDVNzNJxWM/s640/xjo+60mins++16+april+3.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>SPI 60mins:</strong></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">You can see a clear retest of the neckline on the SPI futures that failed. We had a very sharp sweep up to the 45 level that was beaten down straight away. A blow out lower high?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfpYmXLLFCJl7lM0KHtnUMAI033acNqBUv6vxZHlbID9-czcsKRe6AfmDPjstf1DpJiP09VQqQL58cJOO2viAemHTDNwrUDEmg-JgmimSM5Wl-VYF5Hqfux_alandWTy2_EuW78sHnN5ED/s1600/SPI+15mins+16+april.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfpYmXLLFCJl7lM0KHtnUMAI033acNqBUv6vxZHlbID9-czcsKRe6AfmDPjstf1DpJiP09VQqQL58cJOO2viAemHTDNwrUDEmg-JgmimSM5Wl-VYF5Hqfux_alandWTy2_EuW78sHnN5ED/s640/SPI+15mins+16+april.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>A Shares 60mins: </strong></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A sharp rally has taken this market back into a great overhead resistance zone. This could be a possible ABC flat? A small gap down this morning but not enough confirmation yet of a new trend lower. I would continue to look for low risk fades here. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJOvurF9Q_j0erwpMpAt7n8O4Nhyphenhyphen7CLz3vDRsbpTVb-fmBKFJhCGbI-QPgtM9M0DkpoW76IkLs2Trgi4jtstHfsCXagHdZKqtoiVUv-saePOI35K_Q3II4ZOPUsA44kZ9J0EbfXyAHHKlz/s1600/A+Shares+60mins+16+April2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJOvurF9Q_j0erwpMpAt7n8O4Nhyphenhyphen7CLz3vDRsbpTVb-fmBKFJhCGbI-QPgtM9M0DkpoW76IkLs2Trgi4jtstHfsCXagHdZKqtoiVUv-saePOI35K_Q3II4ZOPUsA44kZ9J0EbfXyAHHKlz/s640/A+Shares+60mins+16+April2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The next 24/48hrs will be very interesting indeed. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Thanks</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Austin</div>Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-31785870561638842312012-04-16T09:12:00.000+10:002012-04-16T09:12:03.992+10:00Exciting DevelopmentsMorning All,<br />
<br />
Some very exciting personal developments are taking place. My long term friend and trading colleague, Rich Sexton at <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/</a>, is launching a new Technical advisory service and I have been asked to come on board to head up the Asian equity market analysis. We see a real opportunity to offer first rate analysis and trading opportunities for Asian timezone traders. Analysis for traders written by real traders. <br />
<br />
The new site is still someway off being launched and initially we will be focused on wholesale clients.<br />
Until the new site is up and running, I will be posting at the marketletters blog with my usual analysis and focus that you read here. I will get a redirect feature setup from this blog. <br />
<br />
This is a great opportunity for myself. I have always thoroughly enjoyed writing and sharing my analysis as an extension of my personal trading. Taking this to a new level of professionalism is exactly the career trajectory I want to take.<br />
<br />
I have received so much great feedback from my readers here since the blog started. Thus, this opportunity would not have been possible without you the audience. Thank you. This is not a goodbye but obviously just a recognition of the support you have given me. <br />
<br />
Running a bit short of time now before the open. I will put up a post later with more detailed market analysis. <br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-81456298121288572072012-04-12T14:42:00.004+10:002012-06-28T12:59:43.248+10:00The Ides of March UpdateBeware the Ides of March! A quick glance on google informs me that the "Ides of March" refers to a date on the 15th March on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44BC. A turbulent event no doubt. In this post, I wanted to highlight the effect that the month of March has on the stock market. I think you will be amazed at the turbulence it provides. Back when I worked for Morgan Stanley, my old trading colleague used to stress to me the importance of this month as a turn window whether it be an important high or low. The examples I show here will no doubt illustrate this. The key is the underlying sentiment as the window approaches. <br />
<br />
As I analyse the global indices today, I am amazed once more at the influence of this seasonal window. So many markets have turned right into this and I think the evidence is growing for a significant top.<br />
<br />
Firstly, let me show over the last 10years how the S&P500 has traded around the month of March. Lots of charts here but really this should be quite easy to scan through.<br />
<br />
<b>S&P 500 Daily March 2000:</b><br />
The big 2000 market top that ended the tech bubble. Where did the S&P500 peak? Right into March. A initial 200pt panic sell off ensued. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh27x77XdrmX2HtuSk3wmCuTnvoknqjjYEJLFt5HYkF4etPbrC6d146gwTNpRPQWw7AO1chbqCL35vwDOzk8NVSdZ0N8NChe0WWAeCSv9BiNQwVc5gKS5WbB33iPda0Xv-oT0r_wsvjxAmK/s1600/March+2000+ii.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh27x77XdrmX2HtuSk3wmCuTnvoknqjjYEJLFt5HYkF4etPbrC6d146gwTNpRPQWw7AO1chbqCL35vwDOzk8NVSdZ0N8NChe0WWAeCSv9BiNQwVc5gKS5WbB33iPda0Xv-oT0r_wsvjxAmK/s640/March+2000+ii.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Where did this initial sell off bottom? Right into March 2001<br />
<br />
<b>March 2001:</b><br />
March 2001 proved to be a strong intermediate low. A 250pt rally followed. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPGfU60KwHilIticeWboeFHv4CCO8hJdBI2bFzhxDcV-tWlDdFWnJpvuwd4yxcDms5zidq8-Oxq5CU3c6trNVer8zzZk9FiogHSYgD2sFWRpTFiwZBEBU9V4JyWVhY6QirvswfM4p3DLgu/s1600/March+2001.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPGfU60KwHilIticeWboeFHv4CCO8hJdBI2bFzhxDcV-tWlDdFWnJpvuwd4yxcDms5zidq8-Oxq5CU3c6trNVer8zzZk9FiogHSYgD2sFWRpTFiwZBEBU9V4JyWVhY6QirvswfM4p3DLgu/s640/March+2001.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>March 2002:</b><br />
March 2002 topped out a countertrend rally. A destructive sell off followed from 1175 down to a panic low of 780!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwm8kqDDfb8DprNAyHMh3LJBUadu0dWCXzxZHMOUSvLSsDO539u3H8pJWJ0d0N9q_i12NhBKZzODXCU5lQW1AXF5bxNjmMtTZMcQx6zZT_fYXNFQC1DfhJQNR3RX53uJyK09F_xAnG0OZn/s1600/March+2002.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwm8kqDDfb8DprNAyHMh3LJBUadu0dWCXzxZHMOUSvLSsDO539u3H8pJWJ0d0N9q_i12NhBKZzODXCU5lQW1AXF5bxNjmMtTZMcQx6zZT_fYXNFQC1DfhJQNR3RX53uJyK09F_xAnG0OZn/s640/March+2002.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The wave 2 low and bottom of the bear market was....right into March 2003<br />
<br />
<b>March 2003:</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjsAL6M1j_9LRdu6TMPO4hDMbNfQxp4yfgj7t1Ny6qbQapH4J7qt3YQZB5yqOfcP7udiVrOK87au9xFEMzGD8GAwjoAUE9gCoBx9ezlgAWuUUxlqW4wDV5Q-6vl7SxojSuJUkZb5xNUBej/s1600/March+2003.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjsAL6M1j_9LRdu6TMPO4hDMbNfQxp4yfgj7t1Ny6qbQapH4J7qt3YQZB5yqOfcP7udiVrOK87au9xFEMzGD8GAwjoAUE9gCoBx9ezlgAWuUUxlqW4wDV5Q-6vl7SxojSuJUkZb5xNUBej/s640/March+2003.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>March 2004:</b><br />
Although not topping out the entire Bull market, certainly March 2004 led to an intermediate high and a 6month sell off from 1160 to 1060 followed. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUexOxD51wfDkT55cY295ll4c5D5osMymuwziy-tIEtpKgeMARZnwTE9uumeEnOl7kV5yT-twBTDwBykjRI-4B6InmphXxvuY4nyBEt6_VTs-poRXDNOJ-ZH4tn7upBN0uJ2hTb5Zq9j1Q/s1600/March+2004.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUexOxD51wfDkT55cY295ll4c5D5osMymuwziy-tIEtpKgeMARZnwTE9uumeEnOl7kV5yT-twBTDwBykjRI-4B6InmphXxvuY4nyBEt6_VTs-poRXDNOJ-ZH4tn7upBN0uJ2hTb5Zq9j1Q/s640/March+2004.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>March 2005:</b><br />
Again, another important intermediate high right into March 2005. The market sold off quite sharply from 1230 to 1140. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPHVPtHSbMq-Z-Fsgf4_KkZR_bk-lkyQtF6bpmtzLbBYCih_jclB3l3UaiuaSqAJeHqI8Gedu8Uv4yUWineg8sJlOgVPXyz09_xYwLAo5eu2ET4liJe2i_Mc2I5N0OJQbwinJ4_ozCICiW/s1600/March+2005.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPHVPtHSbMq-Z-Fsgf4_KkZR_bk-lkyQtF6bpmtzLbBYCih_jclB3l3UaiuaSqAJeHqI8Gedu8Uv4yUWineg8sJlOgVPXyz09_xYwLAo5eu2ET4liJe2i_Mc2I5N0OJQbwinJ4_ozCICiW/s640/March+2005.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
When did the first rumbles of the US housing bubble emerge? You guessed it, March 2007. This time was associated with a panic low in the S&P500. <br />
<br />
<b>March 2007:</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRUqzgqWiUJOeor2WSF7-nozl-GEnq8_TxyClBl7ZDO5A4GYOjZ7CoGKoDAE8864Xx7pAf_0uWp_V-RTSFyET9rTW27FWptUOPmQ9FYNO4hi1mSgVph5bLk23JAmYpAex7wEBrZ-GWfWDf/s1600/March+2007.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRUqzgqWiUJOeor2WSF7-nozl-GEnq8_TxyClBl7ZDO5A4GYOjZ7CoGKoDAE8864Xx7pAf_0uWp_V-RTSFyET9rTW27FWptUOPmQ9FYNO4hi1mSgVph5bLk23JAmYpAex7wEBrZ-GWfWDf/s640/March+2007.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>March 2008:</b><br />
In 2008 we were on the onset of a crisis. The market put in a intermediate low back then in March 2008 as BEAR STEARNS was bailed out by the FED. Bearish sentiment was at a fever pitch at this point- cue bear squueze. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM8-feYZomAC4ahlU43f0UdUrIYJ2TM6vS4OHN6WtN5G9q4abdoHvYS-cP32lDJ4JxmbegfvQzS3CkSym1k_VELpdylCDkdiZtFo4a4fGkyHUPd8Ixv12cNQN1-4E3fIr5_4TM_MRS0y1D/s1600/March+2008.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM8-feYZomAC4ahlU43f0UdUrIYJ2TM6vS4OHN6WtN5G9q4abdoHvYS-cP32lDJ4JxmbegfvQzS3CkSym1k_VELpdylCDkdiZtFo4a4fGkyHUPd8Ixv12cNQN1-4E3fIr5_4TM_MRS0y1D/s640/March+2008.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>March 2009:</b><br />
And just when things seemed their worst, just when it seemed like the financial world was ending as we knew it, the market bottomed in March 2009.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyOpgK9L2DgrZLo-ce7WIt_NQIiMxZ8AeeDIP2_emFdryFW7W72uqW-uDf87k2jirDD9cNq6d1LAccUbzV3poH1jkL-aVYrTW5kajwHttI86Oux5T1KWjUTdP-48Ai1HPC2ggD40gk0pdd/s1600/March+2009.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyOpgK9L2DgrZLo-ce7WIt_NQIiMxZ8AeeDIP2_emFdryFW7W72uqW-uDf87k2jirDD9cNq6d1LAccUbzV3poH1jkL-aVYrTW5kajwHttI86Oux5T1KWjUTdP-48Ai1HPC2ggD40gk0pdd/s640/March+2009.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>March 2011:</b><br />
The Japanese earthquake led to a market top in February thus a bit earlier than the window. However, after a 100pt sell off, sure enough we bottomed right into March. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixAb7NsVqYh3657BHxBIqQFP4V-2RlU9mOEemgQJTeAAOTDPFXFJSme0by5-g5cqa-S9zq4T98D5RNxx5u-OCRnsKOBZzgVvEZGdc0pepPnHw9yI8w9obd03acdg9TLUpbrgmVJFUTigUF/s1600/March+2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixAb7NsVqYh3657BHxBIqQFP4V-2RlU9mOEemgQJTeAAOTDPFXFJSme0by5-g5cqa-S9zq4T98D5RNxx5u-OCRnsKOBZzgVvEZGdc0pepPnHw9yI8w9obd03acdg9TLUpbrgmVJFUTigUF/s640/March+2011.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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And so here we are now in March 2012. Bullish sentiment levels are at extremes. Underlying momentum and volume despite the run up has been deterioarting for many months. Each new high has produced weakening breadth readings. And finally we have seen a small pullback. Will this produce something more meaningful? I am betting it will. <br />
<br />
<b>S&P500 2012:</b><br />
The cash high was 2nd April (futures high was 27 March). The correction thus far has been roughly 60pts. If history is any guide, expect a whole lot more down the line. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHf7GWnxcOQ4yBpC-m0OLP0F4YiYiaug-Y0Pcw1lT_Y7P9QVRJkqmX8vwHM7nP3k9MxAXyi3iQQ43Ab3t0LpwnaRWu7gcLlHk8Jc_6KTJTOH-cZnnjI6A_Q9iRPe0_U4WMSiDNumQjUPzQ/s1600/March+2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHf7GWnxcOQ4yBpC-m0OLP0F4YiYiaug-Y0Pcw1lT_Y7P9QVRJkqmX8vwHM7nP3k9MxAXyi3iQQ43Ab3t0LpwnaRWu7gcLlHk8Jc_6KTJTOH-cZnnjI6A_Q9iRPe0_U4WMSiDNumQjUPzQ/s640/March+2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
A quick look at other markets shows interesting tops right into March as well. The sell offs look impulsive. <br />
<br />
<b>Eurostoxx Daily:</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAvvktB____70bbJqpYXIi_llYJYj27Dy86EKNQudNH4oc21lkBUD9zn2oTx5_uMK0CpeSsLrykDWrs09V6fiJ2C5x3ixKwPk8i_y6FrhXIKw9zyrblabLt7LrOA2oTFGQO7e8kSOR5taz/s1600/EUROSTOXX+2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAvvktB____70bbJqpYXIi_llYJYj27Dy86EKNQudNH4oc21lkBUD9zn2oTx5_uMK0CpeSsLrykDWrs09V6fiJ2C5x3ixKwPk8i_y6FrhXIKw9zyrblabLt7LrOA2oTFGQO7e8kSOR5taz/s640/EUROSTOXX+2012.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Hang Seng Daily:</b><br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEici244cK5OydS036WkGo5N4l1yqaLNHYxE9qEk7cB_ZVewBk1H-8fqIRuRHeONsApeilQXEJO9wDtQhGs07bn4aL0O7_vsWZwLhQQI_Z_U6rorZZB2ce0zopuIIQPwC6zgCmqjPbF4qMRM/s1600/HSI+2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEici244cK5OydS036WkGo5N4l1yqaLNHYxE9qEk7cB_ZVewBk1H-8fqIRuRHeONsApeilQXEJO9wDtQhGs07bn4aL0O7_vsWZwLhQQI_Z_U6rorZZB2ce0zopuIIQPwC6zgCmqjPbF4qMRM/s640/HSI+2013.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Nikkei Daily:</b><br />
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BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH.Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-63571085588191763012012-04-12T09:43:00.001+10:002012-04-12T09:52:37.173+10:00Thursday PlanThis is an Asian Trading blog. I am based in Sydney and my main purpose for setting this up was to share Asian trading setups and technical analysis. I didn't see enough blogs doing this and thus I really wanted to make an impact and provide some quality analysis of the region. <br />
<br />
No doubt at times it pays to look overseas. Sure one has to be careful to not get involved in "analysis paralysis" and I strongly believe that you have to really focus on your underlying trading vehicle and market. Just focusing on the bearish setups in Asia coming into the end of March proved this point as we <strong>preceded </strong>the highs of the US: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/asian-daily-setups.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/asian-daily-setups.html</a>. Look how that Nikkei trade played out! If I had been relying on the S&P500 to make some of my decisions, I would have really missed out on what is going on in Asia. <br />
<br />
However, this morning I have been looking at a few Daily charts in Europe and US. The more and more I look, the more I think that we really have seen a meaningful high in the bigger picture. Now may not be the time to short this but any strength in the next 2 weeks I think will provide a great opportunity. Note that March very often produces a major top or bottom throughout history. This has kinda snuck in. <br />
<br />
<strong>Eurostoxx Daily:</strong><br />
This is clearly an ABC pattern. We have now seen overlap and thus this really cant be an impulse off the October lows. This topped right into a resistance zone and the sell off from the high is looking increasingly impulsive. <br />
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<strong>DAX Daily:</strong><br />
Clearly the DAX has been a stronger market. However, I can also make the case for a complete ABC move off the low topping right into res. Once again, the top occurred right into March.<br />
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<strong>S&P500 Daily:</strong><br />
Last night we held that generic trendline I had drawn. However, bigger picture we are trading below my 1370 key pivot. This count was shown to me by my friend at marketletters. Note the momentum divergences into the high AND breadth was also seriously lagging. I am not saying be short here, but a bearish picture is emerging. <br />
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<strong>RUSSELL Daily:</strong><br />
The Russell is often know as the beta index. What I find interesting is that unlike the S&P500, this market did not break above its May highs but topped some way short. This is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, we have seen a clear FAILED breakout. These are my favourite trading patterns and imply genuine weakness. <br />
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So there are a few things to think over. As ever, timing is everything and I don't think being short after the first big sell off is the best trade. I hope to update you as this plays out. <br />
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<br />
To Australia. Yesterday was another frustrating one as a day trader. We traded in a 15pt range for most of the day (despite a big sell off in the US). We then finally broke down in the last 15minutes of trade right into my target area. <br />
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<strong>SPI 60mins:</strong><br />
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I could make a case for somekind of ending wedge pattern here. Clearly we are not breaking down impulsively like other markets for now and we are into a decent support area. Potential short term bounce coming but wait for confirmation. <br />
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<strong>XJO 15mins:</strong><br />
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<strong>My SPI range:</strong> 4240 to 4280. Outlier level 4300. <br />
<br />
<strong>My SPI day trading plan:</strong> We are indicated around 4260 on the open. This is right in the middle of the recent range and thus I don't have an early obvious trade. I will be looking to BUY 4245/4240 if we see an initial sell off and I will be looking to short fade 4272/4275 with tight stops. Note that there is also a possible outlier res level at 4280. Any genuine strength above 4275 (yesterdays high) opens up a potential move back into 4300 and higher. This would trigger that ending wedge pattern above. The trend is still down obviously so waiting for price to confirm is key. <br />
<br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-1028625583421777392012-04-11T09:32:00.004+10:002012-04-11T12:10:45.818+10:00MmmmmmmMarkets go UP and they go DOWN. The last week or so we have seen the forces of gravity do its thing...and then some. Make no mistake, this is the biggest casino in the world and when the herd finds itself caught one way, a sharp panic ensues. For all the work and progress throughout the year, and despite improving "fundamentals", the trend that has been in place can come undone very quickly indeed.<br />
<br />
I didn't see this recent pullback coming in US markets. I guess that is the nature of how tops should form. They should catch everyone off guard in a wave of euphoria when things look their best. However, certainly I have been concerned with the technical picture down here in Asia and put up several posts noting serious topping patterns. These can be re-read here: <br />
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Australia topping pattern: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012_04_03_archive.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012_04_03_archive.html</a><br />
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Asia concerning: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/asian-daily-setups.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/asian-daily-setups.html</a><br />
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So where does this leave us now? It really is a difficult one as this market will go as low as it needs to flush out trapped longs and low enough to get Central Bankers pumping more liquidity into the system. It is just so tiring. Pump trillions into the market to generate a low volume synthetic bull market; then try to turn off the liquidity taps only for the market to throw its toys out of the pram. Central bankers intervene once more to come to the rescue. Wash, rinse, repeat. I really don't know if we put in a low soon or whether this just keeps snowballing. <br />
<br />
The low of that weekly candle I blogged about a while ago has now been clipped. This was a line in the sand for me. Thus at a minimum we are looking at a change of trend/deep pullback. <br />
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<strong>S&P500 Weekly:</strong><br />
Breakout above 1370 only to be slapped back down. Note the several other occasions throughout this run up when we have seen bullish candles filled- a significant pullback at a minimum. <br />
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<strong>S&P500 Daily:</strong><br />
My 55 moving average was breached last night. Price has sold off into a generic upward trendline but I don't really use these in my trading. I guess the logical target for this move for now is 1340 support zone and then we have to see. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><strong>S&P500 60mins:</strong><br />
Potential trend channel coming in also at 1340. <br />
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In sum, at some point we will make a low and I will be looking for a consolidation pattern/base pattern <strong>first</strong> before getting long once more. I thought we would hold in last night but clearly this is stronger than anticipated. I don't think this will be a V-shaped type low thus being patient and waiting for the setup is key. I also don't think now is the time as a swing trader to be looking for shorts. That has played out in the short term. In my experience, these are the points to not get too bearish. Also note that currencies barely sold off last night despite US weakness, an interesting divergence. <br />
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To Australia. This has been such a frustrating sell off from the high. I talked about a clear topping pattern in our market BUT it has been so difficult to get into, especially as a day trader. for the last 3 sessions we have gapped down only to grind higher for the rest of the day. And now we are indicated at 4250 which was my original target for this whole pattern!!!! I wrote the target for this pattern here: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012_04_04_archive.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012_04_04_archive.html</a>. Frustrating indeed.<br />
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<strong>SPI 5mins:</strong><br />
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So we are looking at another gap down this morning into good supports. Will bulls step up once again and BUY this? Really is a tough one and I just don't know. You just have to follow the price action. Some things to note though in Australia:<br />
<br />
1) A complete 5 wave advance into the high on the 60mins timeframe. A Head and Shoulders top has formed and been triggered. <br />
2) Clear Failed breakout pattern on the Daily<br />
3) Breakout above the 200 day moving average only for price to be slapped back down through it. <br />
4) BHP is set to break 33.80/34 today which is obviously a big support level. <br />
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<strong>XJO Daily:</strong><br />
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<strong>SPI 60mins:</strong><br />
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<strong>My SPI range:</strong> 4240 to 4270. Outlier levels 4220 and 4200. <br />
<br />
<strong>My SPI day trading plan:</strong> This is going to be a very difficult day to call and thus I am hesitant to call anykind of range. Bottom line we have gapped down into supports at 4240/4250. I would be looking to buy it early with very tight stops if I see the right confirmation. Any failure to bounce is bearish and we could be looking at a genuine flush. At some point, the bulls may just have to give up. I will not hang around if we cant hold and will flip to short targeting the low 4200s. Have to be patient today and wait for that early range to form.<br />
<br />
Thanks<br />
AustinAustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-7252191557090338952012-04-05T09:34:00.000+10:002012-04-05T09:34:06.863+10:00Happy Easter AllMorning All<br />
<br />
Yesterday was a classic example of why trading the Australian stock market is just so difficult. We had an obvious breakdown through a neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern and clear support. However, this led to a classic short term bear trap. I wrote about this my post as I expected as much: <a href="http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/wednesday-plan.html">http://swingtradersedge.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/wednesday-plan.html</a>. The market failed to breakdown and we grinded higher throughout the day, closing on the highs. And then as soon as the day session is closed, prices really start to sell off and we are now indicated below yesterdays lows! Tough. As much as I hate to say it, we are still very much pawns of our overseas brethren. That EUR short setup I talked about sparked all last nights weakness. <br />
<br />
Thus you really have to make a choice as an index trader in this timezone. You either day trade and close all positions out at the end of the day. This way you cant be beaten up by offshore moves and you can comfortably turn off your screens at the end of the day. You are not going to catch the big chunky overnight moves and much of the trend, but equally your risk is quantified. The alternative is to swing trade the index and this will obviously require much wider stops. Your trade idea may be spot on but your overnight position will be at the mercy of offshore moves. You have to accept this. There will be many times when you will be stopped out unfairly or unexpectedly. Its tough. It has taken me a while to come to a realisation of what works for me in this timezone and I believe many traders need to undergo this process. <br />
<br />
And so to today's trading. Obviously it is Easter Weekend and this will be the last trading session until Tuesday morning with a nice non-farm payrolls figure coming on Friday. I think it goes without saying that most traders will be shutting up shop and closing positions with this kind of headline risk. Thus, given that the weak overnight lead, it is very possible that we see some genuine selling today in Australia with "investors" not wanting to make any big bets here. This is just me talking out loud here so trade what you see.<br />
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<strong>SPI 15mins:</strong><br />
This is the fake breakdown I talked about yesterday. Very frustrating for most. I show this just as an example as I have seen this pattern time and time again. Its why I blogged about it yesterday pre open.<br />
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<strong>SPI 15mins:</strong><br />
More importantly, now that this "false breakdown" is over, it actually opens up the potential for a genuine move lower! Bulls who have bought into this zone repeatedly are now underwater and key short term supports have now dropped. The targets are 4300/4305 but more importantly down at 4270/80. That does look like one serious topping pattern to me. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZxX7-OBXRC5PZj7ybe0OgMN7KREtGouB-MkZaut4GGU3TPXvLolM3zB9nwkpaWYCoDtP0N8IuTRUv1zIC0OOosVYot7AOJTlc4-IKgpxsQr1gMxoXk8tIqGriHeg4A-DIJipHtcpqU1yV/s1600/SPI+15mins+5+April.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZxX7-OBXRC5PZj7ybe0OgMN7KREtGouB-MkZaut4GGU3TPXvLolM3zB9nwkpaWYCoDtP0N8IuTRUv1zIC0OOosVYot7AOJTlc4-IKgpxsQr1gMxoXk8tIqGriHeg4A-DIJipHtcpqU1yV/s640/SPI+15mins+5+April.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>XJO 60mins:</strong><br />
We are indicated at 4312 in the futures which is around 4300 for the cash market. Thus we are set to open BELOW that key breakout zone I talked about. The key will be gauging the early morning move. Any failure to bounce is bearish indeed. Note the 38.2 fib retracement from the high to recent low comes in at 4288 as a small outlier. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmD36JUvdvW0YdZeIHK5Ll4-MwtLIWU1tyXzAXl8f6eeVP5KS95zj-pD2adZPAUqs5Kb48qiYb68OE_BWn-vzjcfzHVn6NV2v_bu0j7uNuGzdtSoB9YaSxI4I-ysUyA0vI-blGCMn-yOyk/s1600/XJO+60mins+5+April2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmD36JUvdvW0YdZeIHK5Ll4-MwtLIWU1tyXzAXl8f6eeVP5KS95zj-pD2adZPAUqs5Kb48qiYb68OE_BWn-vzjcfzHVn6NV2v_bu0j7uNuGzdtSoB9YaSxI4I-ysUyA0vI-blGCMn-yOyk/s640/XJO+60mins+5+April2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>My SPI Range today:</strong> 4280 to 4325. Outlier levels 4330<br />
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<strong>My SPI day trading plan:</strong> Yesterdays low was 4318 and we are indicated below this at 4312. Straight from the open I would be looking to short against this level with stops above 4325. An ideal short level would be 4320 I believe. The target for any initial short is down to 4305/4300 and I will cover into there. There is a confluence of supports at 4300/4305 and I would not be surprised if we held in there for a while. Any failure to bounce out of there and I will short for a breakdown trade, targeting my 4275/4280 levels cited. Given it is the day before Easter, if we don't break 4300 than this could be a fizzler in the afternoon. <br />
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The key as per yesterday is gauging the early morning strength. Yesterday the cash market bottomed straight after the open and there were back to back bullish candles on the 5min charts. You have to heed this and don't fight it. Similarly today, if we fail to sell early than I will heed the markets message. <br />
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As a side note, the 200day moving average for the cash market comes in at 4293 today. Also every man and his dog will be watching BHP at $34. Just some pointers for you. <br />
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<strong>XJO Daily:</strong><br />
Breakout and retest. Just keep this on your mind. How many times has this been hit!!!<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkqg9xfCLje9yaOTJoPgP6728O8Qe5o8nOYStVoLl4c_VB3hhEwu0SDco_ZA8QUx3Y5UFoMPXa8uJzd7rL-B_sMo0OM_awhXCveOCm6lTrNGrvKDRUlj78IUEXZ02tGRRMje1jglt13-V4/s1600/XJO+Daily+5+April3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkqg9xfCLje9yaOTJoPgP6728O8Qe5o8nOYStVoLl4c_VB3hhEwu0SDco_ZA8QUx3Y5UFoMPXa8uJzd7rL-B_sMo0OM_awhXCveOCm6lTrNGrvKDRUlj78IUEXZ02tGRRMje1jglt13-V4/s640/XJO+Daily+5+April3.png" width="640" /></a></div>Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4265171573609832041.post-5709646650380195802012-04-04T09:19:00.001+10:002012-04-04T09:20:59.397+10:00Wednesday PlanMorning All,<br />
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A mixed picture as I look across markets this morning. The Emini S&P500 sold off sharply late in the session due to FOMC comments, but the key support at 1400 was held and there was a sharp snapback. Clearly that market is in a range now from 1385 to 1420 and we seem to be bumping along in somekind of wedge like pattern. As long as 1400/1397 holds I remain bullish and would continue to buy dips. Breaks of this open up a move back down to the low end of the range to 1380/1385. Trade the levels. <br />
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Currencies are giving me real cause for concern. Firstly to the AUD. Yesterday, we saw an impulsive sell off after the rates decision as it looks increasingly likely there are more cuts ahead. AUD is now testing key support for a 3rd time and in my experience, these 3rd tests are often the prelude to a breakdown. More importantly, each move lower is impulsive whereas each bounce thus far remains corrective i.e. this is a clear downtrend. <br />
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<strong>AUD June 60mins:</strong><br />
The original double bottom trade I posted on Friday last week worked BUT the bounce off the low has clearly not been impulsive and a lower high has been made bang on an A=C target. Now we are retesting supports and I would not be surprised if we see a genuine break here. Simply, look for breakdown trades below this level. My friend at marketletters made a very good comment that the whole move off the top is a overlapping mess and thus most people will think this is not a genuine move lower. Well these are probably the ideal conditions for a genuine breakdown. Pls read: <a href="http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/">http://marketletters.blogspot.com.au/</a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVmvBaBjl_YzDYRS6tghGL3zXseJbEcxDqpAgM7rLaYZOacTjvSaJfd-vT51rq2o5AdVXsvfhXqneUe8ffI51DmGmML7-1Vhl1PE_Wqpxml-jMRBbNfSJfqbNkXF26u79tyXT8Y5ssPOFc/s1600/AUD+60mins+4+April3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVmvBaBjl_YzDYRS6tghGL3zXseJbEcxDqpAgM7rLaYZOacTjvSaJfd-vT51rq2o5AdVXsvfhXqneUe8ffI51DmGmML7-1Vhl1PE_Wqpxml-jMRBbNfSJfqbNkXF26u79tyXT8Y5ssPOFc/s640/AUD+60mins+4+April3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>EUR 60mins:</strong><br />
I posted this chart a while ago and I believe we have now seen confirmation of a failed breakout. The catalyst last night was these FOMC comments. Irrespective, a clear base pattern was formed and price <strong>failed</strong> to move higher. This is a bull trap. Last nights sell off was strong and there has been no bounce thus far. You cant manipulate currencies as easy as stocks. I think this is the prelude to a new trend lower back down to those recent lows. I believe this is bearish for other risk assets. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzt06t_FUbHx_Sa-efTIExCM1mgcGCoA7ze3d091TEKfk3ltuZYQOWqKFcgdF60BnqQPCSSkNZdAKRIoWEzu-tsAWIRWyZZfJlt2HnGYlqXTDDdWmgYGIj6zvg-yXprPHfoI1PJ7dZ_yrs/s1600/EUR+60mins+4+April2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzt06t_FUbHx_Sa-efTIExCM1mgcGCoA7ze3d091TEKfk3ltuZYQOWqKFcgdF60BnqQPCSSkNZdAKRIoWEzu-tsAWIRWyZZfJlt2HnGYlqXTDDdWmgYGIj6zvg-yXprPHfoI1PJ7dZ_yrs/s640/EUR+60mins+4+April2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<strong>A Shares 60mins:</strong><br />
I have not updated my A shares 60min chart here for sometime. This has been one of my best calls for a while. This market is still in a clear downtrend with strong momentum. Sure there will be a bounce at some point but these should be sold. Australia's well being is completely linked to this country and market right? <br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin1CxXrdbpZ6Lhd90I5sznZfCOHMJGpdy0CaIjTAKpaeLX-gmyjKNnrnfBMVRO9UTbkzuRGvkN8azx56QIrl7Su3xcqoKWNoUcRFUdLNXZXe_J7-4kyJUgKaW3-DMM-RHlQZMr2t6zxl1Y/s1600/A+Shares+4+april+4+April4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin1CxXrdbpZ6Lhd90I5sznZfCOHMJGpdy0CaIjTAKpaeLX-gmyjKNnrnfBMVRO9UTbkzuRGvkN8azx56QIrl7Su3xcqoKWNoUcRFUdLNXZXe_J7-4kyJUgKaW3-DMM-RHlQZMr2t6zxl1Y/s640/A+Shares+4+april+4+April4.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And so to Australia. Today is a difficult one. There is a Head and Shoulders pattern that I am sure every trader will be looking at. I hate these patterns as so many times I see them fail to play out and actually lead to great bear trap setups. All you can do is be prepared for this if the market fails to sell. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I just want to run through the charts to try to paint a clearer picture. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>XJO Daily:</strong></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Breakout above the 200day ma. We are now retesting the previous breakout zone and this ma which is natural. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6CaC1XLbY8O17w-fez1wRtYJ9elN3pSKulUYTSHomLGarKAPnMwHTtJvOhMWMZprZNqdGfulIQZzzYc9t2oGNAE8KqzbBtOjgpsIgkWYDiShqLgeBcY-YkKcJNz7vuKFF77_RPHtE9ec2/s1600/XJO+Daily+4+April6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6CaC1XLbY8O17w-fez1wRtYJ9elN3pSKulUYTSHomLGarKAPnMwHTtJvOhMWMZprZNqdGfulIQZzzYc9t2oGNAE8KqzbBtOjgpsIgkWYDiShqLgeBcY-YkKcJNz7vuKFF77_RPHtE9ec2/s640/XJO+Daily+4+April6.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>XJO 60mins:</strong></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">4310 to 4320 should prove good support early today as per the chart below. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2I33KgcDR3gvIlOXGC_xewuDNErzV74EjElGSBvkDmrpSK312uTp1GAFCq0-7XG_oRXofCjtgH4URHFcrLCpsWDePtctiK3oBLFqws6EuzYDMb4wOcvn2nblhYkJGZ9eGSQ_gdiWIH2gZ/s1600/XJO+60mins+4+April5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2I33KgcDR3gvIlOXGC_xewuDNErzV74EjElGSBvkDmrpSK312uTp1GAFCq0-7XG_oRXofCjtgH4URHFcrLCpsWDePtctiK3oBLFqws6EuzYDMb4wOcvn2nblhYkJGZ9eGSQ_gdiWIH2gZ/s640/XJO+60mins+4+April5.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>SPI 15mins:</strong></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">However, we are indicated at 4325 early and thus below the neckline of this H+S pattern below. Thus, this pattern will be triggered first thing. The target would be down to 4270 and the potential gap fill. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiikK1mEXdefVAfvFQGjBjAnQOcXsqEBSGXKBSnzvsofH1SkHVGRgdrQTqetJfmAfoUeKteFixKnPS4bCsWW99dJ3Y7V9tNoR2wyJKc_GCIo_JCUJ8wbflHmYYLDMmOLK60vYqCklakZzjk/s1600/SPI+15mins++4+April7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiikK1mEXdefVAfvFQGjBjAnQOcXsqEBSGXKBSnzvsofH1SkHVGRgdrQTqetJfmAfoUeKteFixKnPS4bCsWW99dJ3Y7V9tNoR2wyJKc_GCIo_JCUJ8wbflHmYYLDMmOLK60vYqCklakZzjk/s640/SPI+15mins++4+April7.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Thus, I think we could see somekind of attempted breakdown early that actually holds in. I think the better trade is to short a bounce into that neckline after the initial foray is over. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>My SPI range today:</strong> 4305 to 4340. Outlier levels 4275 and 4355. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><strong>My SPI trading plan:</strong> I will be looking to BUY 4320 early with tight stops. This should be a good area of support for the cash market and I think that there is the potential for a bear trap early given this H+S pattern. Obviously if I see bearish red candles on the open, I will not hang around and get short targeting 4305/4300. My targets for any bounce out of the 20s is into 35/40 where I will look for short fade trades and more aggressive shorts. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Trade Ideas:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">1) BUY 4320/25 with stops at 4316/17. Buy the weakness early into support and if it fails to hold, then we are likely to be looking at a genuine move lower. I will cut and reverse if this doesn't work, looking for 4305/4300. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">2) SHORT 4335/4340. Stops above 4340. This should be solid overhead resistance and a low risk short entry. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">3) BUY scalps at 4300/4305 for tight trades only. If we fail to hold here than short once more targeting 4270/80.</div>Austinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02433237607711264223noreply@blogger.com