Wednesday 30 March 2011

Climatic buying?

I just wanted to put out a quick post given the late surge we saw in Asian markets today. As I stressed this morning in my ASX200 post, we should not fight uptrends until we see a clear distribution process. This is either:
i) A strong reversal candle out of a Fibonacci level/clear resistance level
ii) A double top pattern
iii) A breakdown of a clear range

This is not in place yet. However, just as we saw climatic selling some week backs, I am beginning to see some signs of climatic exhaustion buying. This does not mean a top is in and it does not mean we should be shorting. However, it is a word of caution to tighten up open positions, look for bull flags and other setups back into the trend rather than blindly piling into the market. Always think about risk/reward.

Charts of interest
ASX 200 Daily:
Has rallied right back into the previous trendline. There is a long wick left on today's candle but this is not a bearish reversal candle in itself.

ASX 15mins:
Price has rallied right into an upward sloping resistance line

MSCI Singapore March 60mins:
Has rallied right into the previous breakdown level and my target zone. Small divergences appearing

Nikkei 225 June 60mins:
I posted earlier today about a potential breakout play and a confluence of resistance at 9750 area. This is potentially playing out. Needs a reversal candle as we are in the midst of a strong breakout in the short term

AUDUSD 15mins:
Despite the bullish equities move, AUD is failing to break the 1.03 level for now. This actually looks like a possible rejection in the short term.


I do think the Eminis are in a strong uptrend and the targets are higher for now in that market. However, I wanted to show these setups here in Asia. It could all mean nothing and we blow these levels out of the water- so be it. However, as ever we have to be prepared to sell it when everyone wants it, much the same way we have to be prepared to buy it when no one wants it.

Wait for confirmation.
Best of Luck
Austin