Monday, 30 January 2012

Monday Plan

Morning All,

I poured through the Daily charts over the weekend and put up a number of interesting setups on this post: Please read this work as it provides the key backdrop for my current trading thoughts and plan.

On Friday in the S&P500 Eminis I wrote on this blog:
" I will be looking to short pullbacks vs last nights high on the S&P500 Eminis......I will look to get flat and/or buy at 1305 to 1310"

This worked well on Friday night with the Emins topping out at 1319 (the 50% retrace level off the 1330 high) and making a low at 1307. Price is now trading at the low end of the recent range. My strategy remains very much the same- looking to short at 1318/1322 and an aggressive short entry at 1328/1331. Use the appropriate stops based on your own timeframes and risk reward.

S&P500 Eminis 15mins:
The res zone labelled in red worked a treat on Friday night

Tuesdays are often my trend reversal days. Its possible that we may see a move back up to retest the 1333 S&P500 cash highs on Monday/early Tuesday, and this would provide a great low risk short entry. I personally will scale in at 1320 and then more up at the previous highs.

To Australia today. There was an interesting reversal on Friday right off the 200day moving average: CBA put in a very bearish reversal candle, RIO reversed out of $70 and BHP out of $38 (see charts below). These are all warning signs but obviously need more confirmation before we can call a meaningful high. I believe we would need a "re-test" of Fridays highs and failure to confirm a more meanigful top.

My SPI range today: 4240 to 4270. Outlier levels 4230 and 4285.

My SPI Day trading plan: AUD has opened slightly weaker vs Fridays close and doesn't give any major clues early. The SPI sycomm closed at 4255 on Friday night. I would love a retest of 4280 to get short aggressively but we may not get that. There is also minor res at 4270 and this will be by intial fade spot. On the downside I will look to buy 4240/4245 with tight stops. I don't think that we see a breakdown today and am anticipating potential early weakness that holds and price grinds higher into cited res levels.

Good Luck

CBA Daily:
Bearish reversal candle. Is this a "fake" breakout in the making. The rally off the November lows looks like a clear "3" to me and not a new impulse.

BHP Daily:
Reversal out of resistance

RIO Daily: