Friday, 3 February 2012

Friday Plan

Morning All,

An inside day last night in the S&P500 and thus I don't have too much to add this morning. My plan was to sell a retest of that 1333 cash high (1330 futures). Price looks to be consolidating and that would imply a breakout to retest those levels.

Emini S&P500 15mins:
This chart actually looks quite bullish with a big base pattern building under 1317/1318. My plan is to sell a retest of 1330 with tight stops. Short term breakout traders could use the boundaries of that consolidation pattern to get long or short. Its non-farms tonight and there is your catalyst.

S&P500 Cash 15mins:
I see a number of overlapping "3"s within this recent range. It is very possible to me that any retest of the Highs will be part of a B Wave with a sharp C wave lower to follow. Perhaps I am dreaming. We may have already seen a lower high, or another push higher to come tomorrow. Use that 1322 level as the line in the sand (1317 futures).

DOW 15mins:
My S&P500 pattern has added credit when I look at the DOW. This could be a H+S (although these patterns never work for me ha). Equally, we see a series of overlapping waves in this range. Like the S&P500, no new highs yet the NDX has managed to make a new high which is an interesting divergence.

All in all, price remains in a range with the broader trend up. I continue to trade the boundaries in the short term and continue to keep my targets small. My bigger picture view remains that we are building a high but price doesn't have any interest so far in the US.

To Australia. We are indicated at 4240 in the SPI this morning with the overnight high at 4250 and the low at 4225. Thus we are very much within yesterdays range. There is no economic data in Australia and with non-farms tonight, it could be a very quiet one indeed. Scalping the range could be the name of the game.

SPI March 5mins:
Yesterday we made out high at 4255 just above the 61.8 Fib retrace. Key res levels remain 4255/60 and 4285. Support comes in at 4225/7 and 4200

My SPI range today: 4225 to 4250. Outlier levels 4255/60 and 4285

My SPI day trading plan: As stated above, I think today could be relatively quiet and rangebound. My ultimate scenario is still looking for one more push back up to the previous high for a double top trade. However, early I will look to short fade 4250/55 and buy 4225/7. Price points in between that range will have to be determined as they day plays out. Look to get long and join the trend up if 4260 breaks to the upside, target 4280/5.