Thursday, 8 December 2011

Delayed Morning Report

Morning All,
Unfortunately this is going out a bit after the open today. I had a meeting which went on.

Yesterday I wrote:  I think I would like to see a test of 4265 once again at a minimum before I can even begin to call a low in place. We also need more "time". Last night the SPI hit a low of 4260 and bounced relatively strongly back up to 4300. 

Thus, a clear range has been established from 4260 to 4320. Usually, if the SPI is going to make a genuine low/double bottom, it will do so during the day session. I have been bearish the last 2 sessions and todays open has not altered this stance although we have to give credit to how well the market has held in thus far.  Perhaps everyone is awaiting news come Friday. 

My range today: 4260 to 4305. Outlier levels 4250 and 4320.

My plan today: Todays open has been weak and price immeadiatly sold off from 4300. I am short with tight stops above 4300, looking for a retest of Sycom lows at 4260/65. If we trade down there, I will look to cover and scalp from the long side. The low 80s may also proved some minor support for scalp longs. The ultimate target for this move could be as low as 4200/4220 but we need the 60s to break first which I don't think they will today. I will not change my bigger picture bearish outlook until 4320/25 is breached to the upside.

Employment data out at 11.30am

SPI 5mins
Tested and held 60s overnight. However, bounce does not look impulsive

Eminis 5 mins:
Last night I tweeted that eminis were a perfect low risk short at 1265. This worked great and the move was right into the 40s which was the target zone. However, that bounce was certainly strong off the low. Clearly we are building a consolidation pattern here. Looks like it wants to breakout in time...but not yet