Thursday, 10 May 2012

Mixed Signals

Morning All

Well I really thought the rally would pick up steam overnight. I went to bed soon after the US cash open and saw lots of sell stops going off only for price to snap right back. Often that is indicative of a false breakdown and good turning point. However, price has once again failed to kick on and we have drifted lower forming a short term range. I see mixed signals across markets.

  • S&P500 continues to hold the low end of the support range. The cash market made a lower low overnight but recovered strongly. Price is in a range from 1345 to 1365. Use breakouts above the latter level to get long. Emini S&P500 1340 is now the last stand for bulls.
  • Australia has come into my first major target zone and I believe it is time to get out of shorts. Short term traders could be looking for bullish turning points today out of 4250/60, SPI 4250/40.
  • Hang Seng has broken my daily trendline but we have seen no lower low thus far. Difficult to make a forecast here as price is still in the low end of the Daily range
  • The A Shares reversed yesterday right out of the top end of the range. There is a potential ending wedge pattern that was triggered yesterday. 2500 is key support
  • The KOPSI is testing major supports from 1925 to 1950.
  • EUR and AUD both continue to grind lower but there are bullish momentum divergences forming and some solid supports here. Sentiment is v.v.bearish. Potential bear traps forming.
In sum, I do think Bulls are successfully defending the low end of the range in the S&P500 and the DAX. We need to see follow through which has to come and NOW. Asia is a mixed bag but I am leaning bullish in some markets in the short term such as Australia and the Nikkei just for tactical short term buys.

S&P500 Daily:
Another reversal candle out of support

S&P500 60mins:
If this is a A=C and swing low, price needs to move higher and now. Breaks of 1340 tonight open up 1330 and lower.

Emini S&P500 60mins:
Short term range from 1340/45 to 1360/65


XJO Daily:
Multiple support here

XJO 60mins:

AUD 60mins:
Tagged the 1.00 level in futures last night. See yesterdays post for the significance of this on the weekly chart. Price needs to recapture that line to trigger long traders for me.


HSI Daily:
Daily trendline broke yesterday which concerns me

HSI 60mins:
Price broke through my support zone yesterday. However, no lower lows thus unclear here to me.

A Shares Daily:
Reversal at the top end of the range. This was my strategic view.

A Shares 60mins:
Break of potential wedge pattern. Note 3 push higher on 3 lower peaks on the momentum indicator. 2500 is key support.

KOSPI Daily:
Multiple layers of support coming in at 1925 to 1950. Needs to hold otherwise this could be a genuine breakdown trade.