Friday 18 March 2011

ASX200- Swing low is in

Today's action in the SPI futures and the ASX200 was very positive indeed, completely shrugging off the overnight weakness. I have seen this kind of action a few times in my career and I believe it is a lead indicator for the future direction of this market and indeed global risk markets. Note that the ASX200 bottomed prior to the S&P500 low in July and September 2010. I have been stressing that a climatic low has been forming and having seen the strong double bottom pattern today, I believe this low is in. I am looking for a new trend up and this will be confirmed on breaks of 4600.

ASX200 Daily has shown back to back long wicks at the 61.8 retrace level and Fibonacci fan. Today's close was a solid bullish hammer showing underlying demand. This does need follow through to confirm but no doubt this 4480 level has been strongly defended.



ASX200 Daily:


ASX 5mins:


A confirmed trend change will be breaks above 4600. I believe we will see this in the next few days.


The Materials Sector is a huge component of this Index. Today's low formed a bullish hammer right on a long term trendline and also a 38.2 retrace of the last major swing low. This is bullish.

Materials Daily off low:


Materials Daily:


I showed this chart the other day and I think it needs re-emphasizing. Copper continuous futures have setup a "Failed Head and Shoulders" pattern. My experience has taught me that the most obvious patterns are doomed for mediocrity. A market that fails to do what is expected is a powerful signal of underlying strength.  The entry to get long is given when price closes back above the neckline and thus triggering a short squeeze- this is happening as I write. No doubt a bullish Copper chart will be beneficial to the materials sector and the ASX200.

Copper Daily:


I should also note that we have seen a huge bullish reversal in AUDJPY today. I warned yesterday about breaks of 80 being bearish and this played out dramatically. The strong bounce off 74.50 has been very impressive and the bear trade here is now over.

AUDJPY Daily:


In sum, I think we have seen a climatic low in the ASX200. I think targets for this move are up to 4750 and possibly higher. Position traders should be entering on breaks of 4600 and longer term investors should be picking up bargains.